Four reasons Rangers fans should be optimistic, four why they should worry about 2019
The next time the Texas Rangers take the field is Thursday, and their next 162 games will count.
The general consensus – actually, it’s almost unanimous – is that the Texas Rangers will finish below .500. They might be better than the Seattle Mariners in the American League West, but fourth place is the best the Rangers can finish.
The dissenting opinion comes from the Rangers themselves. After six weeks in Arizona and the second of two exhibitions against the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday at Globe Life Park, the Rangers believe they can win.
That must count for something, right?
There are reasons for them to believe they will be better than the 67-95 mark they posted in 2018. That optimism comes with the caveat of health, though that can be said by every team.
Here’s a look at what the Rangers should like entering the regular season, which begins Thursday against the Chicago Cubs, and what might be of concern.
Be optimistic
The starting rotation: Remember the stay-healthy caveat? That applies here more than any area of the club. Three of the five starters are coming back from Tommy John surgery.
Edinson Volquez has had it twice. Drew Smyly hasn’t pitched in the major since 2016, and Shelby Miller pitched last season but not well. If they are healthy, the Rangers believe they have five starters, along with Mike Minor and Lance Lynn, who know how to keep their team in games. Lynn might emerge as the Rangers’ best pitcher.
The offense: The majority of the players who made up the lineup in 2018 are back, and that’s not a bad thing. The Rangers scored runs in spurts, including an MLB-high 239 over the first 40 games after the All-Star break. They had some power and drew some walks.
Full health could help some players (Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields), and Rangers coaches are confident that the players have adapted to the information influx and requested swing changes. Rougned Odor and Ronald Guzman are the poster boys for that. The players say they have bought into the offensive philosophy of doing whatever it takes to score runs.
The chemistry: No rolling of the eyes, please. Players says that the clubhouse has a better feel than a season ago and that the lines of communication under new manager Chris Woodward are open and flowing both ways.
Players who are allowed to be themselves and who feel like they aren’t walking on egg shells will perform better. That’s significant, especially for the group of younger players expected to fill important roles this season.
Veteran presence: The Rangers are building, but it’s not like they will be fielding a bunch of teenagers. Andrus, Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Shawn Kelley, Jesse Chavez, Jeff Mathis, Hunter Pence and Logan Forsythe have been around the block and will be counted on to patrol the clubhouse and teach the younger players who to be professionals.
They know the grind, how to manage injuries, and the things it takes to win games. The thought is that will rub off on the younger players around them, and that should pay dividends this season. It will also be critical once the rebuild gets into its final phase.
Don’t hold your breath
Depth concerns: The rotation, as was mentioned above and has been mentioned throughout the spring, has three pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery. Yes, they have experience, but it might be too much to ask them to throw 180 innings.
Pitchers from the minors are almost certain to be needed, and there’s the problem. The Rangers don’t have much rotation depth, and what they do have doesn’t instill a lot of confidence. The Rangers also don’t want to tap into the young prospects until midseason.
Youth: It’s hard to squeeze a negative word out of Woodward, but he admitted Tuesday that he has concerns about the Rangers’ young players. It’s not that they’re not any good, but a lack of experience is also concerning.
The Rangers are counting on Joey Gallo, DeShields, Mazara, Guzman and Odor, age 26 or younger, to improve and 25-year-old closer Jose Leclerc to maintain the dominance he showed last season. They were asked to make changes to their approach and their swings and to do so with new, unfamiliar data. They need early success to stay confident in the process.
Bullpen: This is tied to the first two. If the starters are balky early or have trouble getting past five innings, the bullpen could wear down quickly. Gee, has that ever happened with the Rangers?
There is experience, in Kelley, Chavez and, to a degree, Chris Martin. Multiple pitchers can log multiple innings. Leclerc is widely regarded as an elite reliever, though it didn’t show in the spring. The rest? They have either never pitched in the majors or barely pitched. The flight from Nashville is only 1 hour, 44 minutes.
Power outage: Spring counts aren’t supposed to count, good or bad, so maybe the 29 home runs the Rangers hit this spring shouldn’t be of concern. The Houston Astros only hit 33.
Mazara, though, didn’t hit is first until Tuesday. Gallo didn’t hit any, though he did connect twice in minor-league games. Choo and Cabrera also posted a goose egg in the homer category.
This story was originally published March 26, 2019 at 3:28 PM.