Over or under 66.5 wins for 2021 Texas Rangers? They feel confident as spring ends.
The most unusual spring training in Texas Rangers history, courtesy of COVID-19, came to an end Sunday in usual fashion at the Surprise Recreation Campus.
The roster is nearly all decided. Optimism is high in the face of long odds.
Both are typical of past Rangers spring camps.
But skepticism of that optimism is also high.
The roster is young. Veterans are injured. The rebuild appears to have advanced only past the ground floor.
The 2021 regular season starts Thursday at Kansas City, whether the Rangers are ready or not.
They have said they are ready during their final week in Arizona, and ready to prove wrong all the naysayers.
“It [ticks] us off, and it’s a good thing,” manager Chris Woodward said.
The bar is incredibly low. Las Vegas oddsmakers have set the over/under for the Rangers’ win total at 66.5, and only three teams have lower totals.
The Rangers’ Opening Day starter, Kyle Gibson, sported a 5.35 ERA last season. Their most well-known player, Joey Gallo, batted .181. Rougned Odor is still under roster consideration, though perilously so, and potentially in line for more at-bats than his .167 average in 2020 says he deserves.
The Rangers will have eight rookies on their pitching staff, when including Japan veteran Kohei Arihara, and at least 11 total on the 26-man roster. It could be 12 if either Adolis Garcia or Hyeon-Jong Yang grab the final spot.
But with youth comes pluckiness. A lack of performance produces motivation.
So, take the over?
“I think we are way better than people are giving us credit for,” Gibson said. “We have the right mesh of players. I know that’s completely overlooked when it to projections and all that stuff. You can’t evaluate that stuff.
“I think we have guys who are in a situation where they’re all going to get better. We have guys who are looking to have a bounce-back year who in a shortened season that might have ended up at their career averages at 162. I think we have a lot of guys who have a lot to prove, myself included.”
And, Gibson has said throughout the spring, the Rangers have talent. The pitchers all have stuff, he said. The offense has improved its at-bat quality and added more punch to the lineup after a miserable 2020.
The defense should also improve, with Gold Glove-winning Isiah Kiner-Falefa moving to shortstop. The outfield defense is headed by another Gold Glover, Gallo, and a minor-league Gold Glover, Leody Taveras.
Catcher Jose Trevino won two Gold Gloves in the minors.
There is a formula for success, or at least more than the paltry projected win total.
There are also reasons why so little is expected from the Rangers in 2021.
Start with the inexperience. In addition to the 11 rookies, Trevino, first baseman Nate Lowe and second baseman Nick Solak are still young.
The lineup that showed so poorly last season has only two newcomers, Lowe and David Dahl. Khris Davis will be a third once he’s healthy, but he’s been a below-average player the past two seasons.
While the pitching staff might have stuff, many of them are still learning how to use it against MLB hitters.
So, take the under?
Maybe just stay from it.
“We’ve tried to set ourselves up to compete on a nightly basis,” Woodward said. “We know it’s not going to be easy, and I want our players to embrace that and love on that, and go out and compete their butts off every night.”
This story was originally published March 28, 2021 at 3:55 PM.
