After living in Las Vegas for 13 years, with a fair amount of time spent betting on sports and covering gambling as a journalist, sometimes my radar goes up about a point spread that “just doesn’t look right.”
BYU -3.5 at home against the Horned Frogs just doesn’t look right.
The Cougars (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) are ranked No. 12 in the country and should be focused after suffering their first loss of the season last week, 29-7 at Texas Tech.
The Horned Frogs (6-3, 3-3) are unranked and essentially saw their hopes for the Big 12 championship end with last week’s collapse against Iowa State.
BYU has everything to play for, with the conference championship and College Football Playoff still in its sights. TCU seemingly is playing the role of spoiler while waiting to find out what minor bowl it’s headed to.
Two major publicly available power ratings systems, ESPN’s FPI and Jeff Sagarin, peg the point spread at more like BYU -7 or -8 (or higher).
And yet, the Cougars opened only as 4-point favorites on Sunday at Circa Sports in Las Vegas, and after a brief spike, the point spread has trended down all week until resting at 3.5 on Thursday afternoon.
On Kalshi, the prediction market that has become a legal way for Texans to bet on sports, BYU has a 60% chance of winning the game. TCU was a 70% favorite to beat Iowa State last week on Kalshi; we saw how that worked out.
All of this tells me bettors should be careful before tossing BYU into their parlays, which means Saturday could be a fun night for Horned Frogs fans. When sportsbooks are seemingly inviting bettors to pile onto one side, they should be wary. There’s no free money in the casino.
Or all of this could mean nothing, and BYU will bounce back against a listless TCU team that doesn’t have a lot to play for.
If “this line just doesn’t look right” were infallible, well, I wouldn’t be working for a living.
Game schedule dates, times, locations
NEXT UP: Game dates, times, locations, channel
Rangers ▶
May 8 Chicago Cubs 7, Rangers 1
May 9 Rangers 6, Chicago Cubs 0
May 10 Rangers 3, Chicago Cubs 0
May 11 Arizona 1, Rangers 0
May 12 Rangers 7, Arizona 4
May 13 vs. Arizona, 7:05 p.m., RSN
May 15 at Houston, 7:10 p.m., CW
May 16 at Houston, 6:10 p.m., RSN
May 17 at Houston, 1:10 p.m., RSN
May 18 at Colorado, 7:40 p.m., RSN
May 19 at Colorado, 7:40 p.m., RSN
May 20 at Colorado, 2:10 p.m., RSN
TCU Baseball ▶
May 1 Oklahoma State 7, TCU 6
May 2 Oklahoma State 9, TCU 2
May 3 Oklahoma State 11, TCU 10
May 8 TCU 3, Utah 0
May 9 TCU 3, Utah 1
May 10 TCU 4, Utah 3
May 14 at West Virginia, 5:30 p.m., ESPN+
May 15 at West Virginia, 5:30 p.m., ESPN+
May 16 at West Virginia, noon, ESPN+
May 19-23 Big 12 tournament (at Surprise, Ariz.)
Wings▶
May 9 Wings 107, Indiana 104
May 12 Atlanta 77, Wings 72
May 14 vs. Minnesota, 7 p.m., Amazon Prime Video
May 18 vs. Washington, 7 p.m., KFAA, Peacock
May 20 at Chicago, 8 p.m., KFAA, USA
May 22 at Atlanta, 6:30 p.m., Ion
May 24 at New York, 2:30 p.m., NBC, Peacock
TCU Football ▶
2026 season
Aug. 29 vs. North Carolina (at Dublin), 11 a.m., ESPN
Sept. 12 vs. Grambling State, TBA
Sept. 19 vs. Arkansas State, TBA
Sept. 26 at Central Florida, TBA
Oct. 3 vs. BYU, TBA
Oct. 17 at Baylor, TBA
Oct. 24 vs. West Virginia, TBA
Oct. 31 vs. Kansas, TBA
Nov. 6 at Arizona, TBA
Nov. 14 vs. Kansas State, TBA
Nov. 21 vs. Utah, TBA
Nov. 26 at Texas Tech, 7 p.m., ESPN
Cowboys ▶
2026 season
Sept. 13 at N.Y. Giants, 7:20 p.m., NBC
Sept. 27 vs. Baltimore (at Rio de Janeiro), 3:25 p.m., CBS
Nov. 26 vs. Philadelphia, 3:30 p.m., Fox
Other 2026 opponents (dates and times TBA)
vs. N.Y Giants
vs. Washington
vs. Arizona
vs. San Francisco
vs. Tampa Bay
vs. Jacksonville
vs. Tennessee
at Philadelphia
at Washington
at L.A. Rams
at Seattle
at Green Bay
at Houston
at Indianapolis
FC Dallas ▶
April 18 FC Dallas 2, LA Galaxy 2
April 22 Minnesota 1, FC Dallas 0
April 25 Seattle 2, FC Dallas 1
May 2 FC Dallas 2, NY Red Bulls 0
May 9 FC Dallas 3, Salt Lake 1
May 13 vs. Vancouver, 7:30 p.m., Apple TV
May 16 at San Jose, 9:30 p.m., Apple TV
May 23 at Colorado, 8:30 p.m., Apple TV
World Cup break
Texas Motor Speedway ▶
May 15-16 LS Fest
May 23 Bandas y Trocas
May 30 Urban Racing
This story was originally published November 14, 2025 at 4:30 AM.
Jim Barnes is the Star-Telegram’s sports editor. A Fort Worth native and graduate of Castleberry High School, he returned to Texas after 13 years at the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He previously was sports editor of the Waco Tribune-Herald and a freelance high school sports reporter for The Dallas Morning News.
