3 reasons TCU football will — or won’t — defeat No. 12 BYU this weekend
It’s special occasion for TCU football, as the Horned Frogs have a chance to secure the program’s biggest win since the 2022 Fiesta Bowl when they play at No. 12 BYU at 9:15 p.m. Saturday on ESPN.
A win would potentially keep TCU (6-3, 3-3 Big 12) alive in the conference title race and damage the chances of BYU (8-1, 5-1) making the College Football Playoff.
Both teams are coming off disappointing defeats last week and know their seasons hang in the balance. Who will come out on top Saturday?
Here are three reasons why it might be TCU, and three reasons why it might be BYU:
Three reasons TCU will upset BYU
1. Forcing turnovers
The Cougars have only lost one game this season, and it required Texas Tech to force three turnovers during a 29-7 win in Lubbock last Saturday. Producing takeaways has been a strength for the Horned Frogs, who rank 10th the country in turnovers forced per game, according to TeamRankings.com.
Whether it’s safeties Bud Clark or Jamel Johnson intercepting passes or linebacker Kaleb Elarms-Orr forcing a timely fumble, the Horned Frogs’ defensive leaders will need to steal a possession or two for TCU to win in Provo.
2. Run defense
Another strength of TCU’s has been the run defense, led by Elarms-Orr and Johnson. The Horned Frogs rank third in the Big 12 in rushing defense, allowing only 124.7 yards per game, which is better than BYU’s elite defense (131.6).
The run defense will need to play its best game of season against the Cougars’ rushing attack, which ranks second in the conference with 200.0 yards per game, led by star running back LJ Martin. Martin has rushed for just 50 yards total in the past two games, and it’s crucial that TCU doesn’t allow him to have a breakout game.
3. Eric McAlister
TCU wide receiver Eric McAlister may be the best individual offensive talent the Cougars have seen this season. McAlister leads the league in receiving yards (834) and is tied for second in receiving touchdowns with eight. McAlister has recorded at least 100 yards in four of the past six games and hasn’t been held under 62 yards since Sept. 13 against Abilene Christian.
BYU’s secondary has been elite this season, allowing 192.2 yards per game, but the Cougars haven’t had to guard a receiver like McAlister. The Horned Frogs may need close to 150 yards from their star wideout to pull off the upset.
Three reasons why BYU will defeat TCU
1. Road Josh Hoover
Quarterback Josh Hoover and TCU as a whole have looked much different on the road compared to when they’re playing at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Hoover has thrown just six touchdown passes and five interceptions on the road this season, with games in tough environments at Arizona State, Kansas State and West Virginia.
The environment in Provo could be a completely different animal, as the Cougars’ home crowd will be motivated to help BYU keep pace in the CFP and Big 12 title races. Hoover will need to play his best game of the season.
2. No Kevorian Barnes
The Horned Frogs were already going to be hard-pressed to generate a run game against BYU’s elite front seven, but now TCU will have to do so without leading rusher Kevorian Barnes, who was listed as out on the player availability report.
Barnes is the exact type of running back who could have success against BYU with his physicality and vision at the line of scrimmage. TCU will have to rely on Trent Battle and Jeremy Payne to get the job done. The two have shown explosiveness, but will they able to generate yards on those hard-nosed runs like Barnes did?
If TCU can’t manage 130 rushing yards, the odds of victory may be slim.
3. Situational advantage
While the Horned Frogs have struggled at times this season in key situations like the red zone and third down, it’s been the exact opposite for BYU. The Cougars allow opponents to convert only 32.5% of their third down attempts and 37.5% on fourth down compared to 41.4% and 56.5% for TCU.
The Cougars have been much more dependable in getting off the field compared to the Horned Frogs, and the ability to string drives together will be essential, as chunk plays could come at a premium. BYU also has the best red zone defense in the conference, while TCU ranks 15th out of 16 teams.
TCU must perform better in these key situations to prevail.
Prediction
TCU’s struggles on the road and the fact that BYU will be determined to bounce back from last week’s blowout loss to Texas Tech make it hard to predict a TCU victory.
The Horned Frogs will keep it close, but key mistakes will doom them in the second half of a 24-17 defeat.
