Where do Sonny Dykes, TCU football stand after collapse vs. Iowa State?
After TCU football defeated Baylor on Oct. 18, head coach Sonny Dykes’ postgame press conference took an unusual turn.
With a few exceptions, win or lose, Dykes has mostly maintained a calm demeanor in those pressers. But Dykes was feeling fired up after the Horned Frogs avoided a last-minute collapse in the 42-36 victory.
“We are the winningest team in the Big 12 the last 3 1/2 years, just so everybody knows that,” he said. “Our players know how to win. They’ve done this before. It wasn’t pretty. I don’t really care. We won the football game. That was our objective.”
It wasn’t a question that set Dykes off in that moment. It was his opening statement, and it felt like a response to a fan base that had grown agitated after an ugly loss at Kansas State.
Dykes would confirm later that week that he was defending his players after they voiced “disappointment” in some of the comments they read on social media.
It felt like a “line in the sand moment” for a coach who had grown frustrated with how loud the chatter had been about a tenure in which he’s won 67% of his games.
However, after TCU (6-3, 3-3 Big 12) blew another double-digit lead in Saturday’s 20-17 home defeat to Iowa State, those same words and the Horned Frogs’ gaudy record dating to last season feel hollow.
All but out of Big 12 title race
TCU is 12-4 in its past 16 games, but barring miracles across the league, the Horned Frogs will go a third straight season without playing for the Big 12 championship.
By Dykes’ own comments during the preseason, making it to Arlington for the conference title game was the standard of success for this season, and the Horned Frogs will likely fall short because of their inability to close out games.
TCU was up 17-0 against Arizona State on the road, but didn’t win the game. It led 17-6 against Iowa State in the fourth quarter. The Cyclones came into Saturday’s game beaten up on defense and in the midst of a four-game losing streak, yet the Cyclones found a way to win.
Even in recent wins over Baylor and West Virginia, the inability to close games nearly cost TCU. The Horned Frogs led 42-21 with under four minutes to play against Baylor, but failed to recover an onside kick and had to make an interception in the final seconds to avoid a late loss.
TCU led 20-7 at halftime and 23-10 with 4:48 remaining in the game at West Virginia, but the Horned Frogs needed an onside kick recovery to secure a 23-17 win despite being in control throughout.
There’s a difference between closing a game and holding on to win. Too often TCU has done the latter, and against the good programs, the ones the Horned Frogs must consistently beat to be at the top of the Big 12, that’s not good enough.
In the aftermath of the collapse against Iowa State, Dykes was reluctant to say the Horned Frogs have a problem closing games.
“We’ve got to close games out better obviously,” Dykes said. “I don’t know if closing games out is the issue as much as it is committing critical mistakes in the game. The game gets closed out better if you make a ... field goal, if you don’t give up a punt return for a touchdown. It’s easier to close it out. The problem tonight was we didn’t get off the field.
“I think in some ways it would be easy for me to say we don’t close out games well, which you have to close them out to win them, and we have six times this year. We obviously have to do a lot of things better to give ourselves a chance to win.”
TCU run game, third-down defense struggling
While Dykes can point to TCU winning six games this season as evidence of TCU not having a problem closing games, the way that TCU has lost games the past two seasons paints a different picture.
For three quarters Iowa State looked very much like a team that has lost four straight games, but when the game was on the line, somehow the Cyclones were able to dig deep and find a way to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
After taking a 17-6 lead, TCU allowed Iowa State to gain 25 and 24 yards on back-to-back plays to get into scoring position. The Horned Frogs gave up a third-and-6 before Iowa State scored a touchdown to cut it to 17-12.
TCU got the ball back with 8:04 remaining and went three-and-out, as Iowa State perfectly predicted that the Horned Frogs would run a slant to Eric McAlister with the game on the line. TCU was forced to punt, and Aiden Flora returned it 79 yards for a touchdown to put the Cyclones in front 20-17 with 6:32 to play.
After TCU running back Jeremy Payne fumbled at the Iowa State 12-yard line, the Horned Frogs had to get a defensive stop with 5:04 remaining to get another chance to tie or take the lead.
TCU didn’t get the ball back until only 18 seconds remained.
The final sequence was a perfect summary of the Horned Frogs’ weaknesses, as an improved defense struggled yet again to get off the field on crucial downs. Iowa State was 8 of 16 on third down and 2 of 3 on fourth down in the game.
TCU ranks 15th (next-to-last) in the Big 12 in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert 41.4% of the time.
The fourth quarter is where the run game is supposed to shine, but TCU’s inability to consistently dominate the line of scrimmage doomed it against the Cyclones. Payne gave TCU a boost with 71 yards on eight carries, but his ill-timed fumble proved to be the final nail in the coffin.
It was yet another reminder of how inefficient TCU’s run game has been the past two seasons, as the Horned Frogs rank 15th in the conference in rushing yards per game (122.8).
Football is a complex game with a variety of schemes and systems. The great college programs are able to execute two simple principles: getting off the field on third down and controlling the line of scrimmage with the run game.
TCU has been unable to do either this season, and it will likely cost them a shot at the Big 12 title once again.
Finishing 6-6 is a real possibility for TCU with a remaining slate of BYU, Houston and Cincinnati, but 7-5 or 8-4 is more likely. Finishing with either of those records will mean Dykes has averaged 8.5 or 8.8 wins per season in his four-year tenure, which by all accounts would be a successful stint at most programs, like an SMU.
But one reason Dykes left SMU was because of the passionate fan base in Fort Worth that is patient, yet hungry to contend for Big 12 titles.
Falling short of expectations
As much as Dykes deserves credit for winning nearly 70% of his games, it’s also fair to acknowledge TCU has far too often found ways to lose games it shouldn’t have — Arizona State and Iowa State this year, Houston and Central Florida last year, even Colorado and West Virginia the year before in 2023.
As much as Dykes wants to say the program knows how to win, too often fans have seen the Horned Frogs crumble in the fourth quarter against less-talented teams. Even if TCU finishes the year 9-3, fans will still lament how the collapses against Arizona State and Iowa State kept the Horned Frogs out of the College Football Playoff picture.
Despite having elite personnel like McAlister, safety Bud Clark and linebacker Kaleb Elarms-Orr, the Horned Frogs’ future likely won’t include a trip to Arlington.
“I think we’re at that point as a program where if we’re not in the Big 12 Championship Game, it’s probably not a successful season,” Dykes said at Big 12 media days in July. “That’s where we want to be, and we think we’re a team, year in and year out, that should be in the Big 12 title hunt. We think this team is capable of doing that. We’ll see how it plays out.”
Instead of playing for a berth to the CFP, TCU will spend the rest of November trying to improve its bowl standing for December.
The fact that it’s come to that means the Horned Frogs have come up well short of their preseason goals.
This story was originally published November 10, 2025 at 12:20 PM.
