3 reasons why TCU football will — or won’t — win rematch with Colorado
TCU football will host head coach Deion Sanders and Colorado on Saturday at Amon G. Carter Stadium for the first time since Coach Prime led the Buffaloes to an upset of the Horned Frogs in the 2023 season opener.
Both programs have changed dramatically since that game, but the stakes are high for both teams.
TCU (3-1, 0-1 Big 12) is aiming to stay in the thick of the conference title race and can’t afford an 0-2 start after last week’s disappointing loss to Arizona State. Colorado (2-3, 0-2) has its hands full if it wants to make a bowl game with a tough remaining slate.
The winner of this game will feel like it got its season back on track, while the loser will have to accept the reality that it may fall short of its preseason goals.
Here are three reasons why TCU will rebound from last week’s loss, or fall to Coach Prime and Colorado for the second straight game:
Three reasons why TCU will defeat Colorado
1. QB advantage
For the first time this season, TCU quarterback Josh Hoover was outplayed by the opposing quarterback, as Sam Leavitt led Arizona State back from a 17-0 deficit last week. However, Hoover should be the best quarterback on the field Saturday when Colorado rolls into town.
Buffaloes starter Kaidon Salter is a dual threat just like Leavitt, but he has struggled as a passer this season and already has been benched once. Hoover is coming off a three-turnover game, but Colorado hasn’t seen a quarterback as accurate as Hoover this season.
Hoover bounces back with a clean game, while Coach Prime contemplates making a quarterback change.
2. Lack of balance
The Buffaloes and Horned Frogs have struggled with their rushing attack in recent weeks, but at least TCU has one of the nation’s most efficient passing offenses to overcome that. The same can’t be said for Colorado, which only ranks 10th in the Big 12 in passing yards per game, while TCU ranks third with over 100 more yards through the air per game.
The numbers also suggest TCU will have an easier time establishing the run against a Colorado defense that ranks 15th in the league in rushing defense. The Horned Frogs have been much better against the run and should be able to limit Colorado’s production on the ground.
TCU is able to outrush Colorado and do enough to help Hoover out.
3. Redemption
While there aren’t many players left from that 2023 team that was upset by Colorado, TCU should still have plenty of motivation to avenge that loss. If not the players, then certainly for head coach Sonny Dykes, who has to view that loss to the Buffaloes as one of the low points of his tenure in Fort Worth.
For the newer Horned Frogs who weren’t on that squad, it’ll be a different type of redemption, as TCU will look to erase the lingering feelings of blowing a 17-point lead to the Sun Devils.
A motivated TCU comes out and plays with a physicality it lacked against Arizona State.
Three reasons why Colorado will upset TCU again
1. Injuries
The Horned Frogs will be without at least one key starter, with defensive tackle Ansel Din-Mbuh ruled out for Saturday’s game. Leading rusher Kevorian Barnes and receiver Eric McAlister are also banged up and were listed as questionable on the injury report. Even if both play, there’s a good chance they will be limited in some capacity. Starting kicker Kyle Lemmermann will also be out another week.
Without some of their most important players at 100%, TCU is vulnerable.
2. The turnover battle is lost
Despite the injuries, a case can be made that biggest reason TCU fell to Arizona State was losing the turnover battle 3-1, with all three turnovers coming in the second half. Colorado hasn’t shown a tendency for generating turnovers, with just two interceptions in five games, but one ill-advised interception could be all it takes to turn a game around.
If Colorado wins the turnover battle, its chances of pulling off an upset increase.
3. An unexpected QB change
Colorado has yet to turn to five-star freshman Julian Lewis this season — he has only four passing attempts — instead giving Salter and backup Ryan Staub opportunities to start. But what if Salter struggles against TCU in the first half? Would Sanders be open to throwing the freshman into the fire on the road? It would be a risky move, but what if Lewis comes into the game and is able to provide a spark?
It may take a gamble like that for Colorado to stun TCU, and the Horned Frogs must be prepared to face all three quarterbacks.
Prediction
TCU defeats Colorado 34-23 to improve to 4-1.
This story was originally published October 3, 2025 at 10:55 AM.
