3 reasons why TCU football will — or won’t — win Big 12 opener at Arizona State
It’s another big week for No. 24 TCU, as the Horned Frogs finally begin Big 12 play on the road at Arizona State at 8 p.m. Friday.
The Sun Devils (3-1, 1-0) project to be a formidable opponent with an experienced defense, an elite wide receiver and a quarterback who led Arizona State to the College Football Playoff last season.
The last time TCU (3-0, 0-0) played in the Phoenix area was in 2022 when the Horned Frogs shocked Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl to reach the national title game. Beating the Sun Devils wouldn’t be quite as big of an upset — Arizona State is a 3-point favorite — but it would still be a signature win for the Horned Frogs.
Here are three reasons why TCU will improve to 4-0, or suffer its first loss of the season:
Three reasons why TCU will upset Arizona State
1. QB advantage
Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt earned all the hype during the offseason, but so far TCU’s Josh Hoover appears to be the better signal-caller. Despite playing one fewer game, Hoover has thrown for 250 more yards and five more touchdowns.
Hoover is beginning to creep into the Heisman conversation, and a brilliant performance on the road could be exactly what he needs to shoot up even higher in those discussions. The Arizona State coaching staff says Hoover is the best quarterback the Sun Devils have seen so far, and they allowed Mississippi State’s Blake Shapen to throw for 279 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in the Bulldogs’ 24-20 win Sept 6.
If Hoover can match that production, TCU can win.
2. A confident defense
The Horned Frogs defense’s back was against the wall in the fourth quarter against SMU after the Mustangs stormed back to take their first lead of the game. With the pressure mounting, TCU’s defense rose to the occasion by forcing three straight stops, including two interceptions, after the Horned Frogs retook the lead with 9:18 remaining.
It’s the type of performance that can increase the confidence of the defense. The Horned Frogs also held SMU under 100 yards rushing, a major improvement from last season. TCU also gets starting defensive end Zach Chapman back in the lineup this week.
With the defense a bit healthier, TCU will have an even better shot of keeping Arizona State in check.
3. More weapons at receiver
Would you rather have one elite weapon or three excellent ones?
That’s the question that could determine Friday’s game, as TCU’s deep receiving corps of Eric McAlister, Jordan Dwyer and Joseph Manjack will aim to outduel Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson. Everything about the Sun Devils’ passing game is centered around Tyson, while TCU has had three receivers who have had 100-yard games this season.
While the Horned Frogs can sell out on Tyson, Arizona State will have a much more difficult time picking which wideout to slow down. That should be an advantage for TCU.
Three reasons why Arizona State will defeat TCU
1. Sam Leavitt’s mobility
While Leavitt’s passing numbers are a bit underwhelming, there’s no denying how effective he can be outside of the pocket. He has rushed for 219 yards and four touchdowns this season, including two games with 12 or more carries. The Sun Devils aren’t afraid to use him in the run game, and that can cause problems, as a QB-led run game frees up an extra blocker to use against the defense.
When quarterback Kevin Jennings scrambled for SMU, it was usually to buy time for his receivers downfield, but Leavitt will look to pick up chunk plays on the ground if he can find a lane.
2. TCU’s cornerbacks are outmatched
It will take a committee approach among cornerbacks Channing Canada, Vernon Glover and Jevon McIver to slow down Tyson, who TCU head coach Sonny Dykes says could be the best receiver in the country. The 6-foor-2 Tyson has good size, but he’s also electric after the catch. It will require a physical approach during and after the route to slow him down.
Tyson will get plenty of targets and chances to impact the game, but Baylor somehow managed to limit him to 43 yards last week. Can the Horned Frogs’ secondary find a way to do the same?
3. Special teams
One area that Arizona State will have a clear advantage at is at kicker, as TCU will be without starter Kyle Lemmermann for a second straight game. TCU attempted just one field goal last week, and it was a bad miss from 47 yards from Nate McCashland. The Horned Frogs were also much more aggressive on fourth down, which is another sign of how little trust they have in their field goal kicking.
Meanwhile, Arizona State kicker Jesus Gomez is 9-of-10 of the season, with his lone miss coming on a 57-yard try on the last play of the first half in the season opener. When Arizona State gets to the TCU 35, the Sun Devils will be in scoring range, but the same can’t be said for the Horned Frogs.
A late Arizona State field goal or a miss by TCU could swing the game.
TCU-Arizona State prediction
I predicted in August that Arizona State would outlast TCU, but the Horned Frogs have been more impressive to start the season. Hoover outplays Leavitt, and TCU gets a critical stop late to escape Tempe with a 27-24 win.
