Game-by-game predictions: How will TCU football fare in 2025?
College football is back, and it’s time for the Star-Telegram’s annual TCU football season prediction.
TCU has one of the most challenging schedules in the Big 12, with four games against preseason top 25 opponents, plus matchups with Baylor and North Carolina. But the Horned Frogs also return the nucleus of last year’s 9-4 team, including junior quarterback Josh Hoover, senior receiver Eric McAlister and senior safety Bud Clark.
TCU’s chances for success will mostly depend on the team’s ability to establish the run and whether or not the defense takes the jump head coach Sonny Dykes is anticipating. Coming out of fall camp, the defense exceeded expectations, while the running game still has questions to answer.
So how will the Horned Frogs fare in 2025? Will they reach the Big 12 title game for the first time since 2022?
Let’s take it game by game:
Sept. 1 at North Carolina
Result: TCU wins 37-23.
Breakdown: The Horned Frogs open the year on the road against Bill Belichick in his debut game coaching at the collegiate level. There’s a great unknown in preparing for a coach’s first game, but Dykes and the Horned Frogs have been here before after playing Deion Sanders and Colorado in 2023. The Tar Heels went 6-7 last season and lost a number of starters in the transfer portal, while TCU returns plenty of experience on both sides of the ball.
Belichick is one of the best football coaches ever, but he’ll still need time to rebuild the program. TCU opens the season with a nationally televised victory.
Sept. 13 vs. Abilene Christian
Result: TCU wins 49-7 (record 2-0).
Breakdown: With a week off before this game, TCU should roll with little difficulty. This game also will be the best chance to see young Horned Frogs like quarterback Adam Schobel, receiver Terry Shelton and edge Chad Woodfork.
Sept. 20 vs. SMU
Result: TCU wins 35-31 (3-0).
Breakdown: The Horned Frogs were embarrassed in Highland Park last year, and redemption will be the main goal in the final scheduled Battle for the Iron Skillet. The Mustangs return quarterback Kevin Jennings and star offensive lineman Logan Parr, but SMU only returns two starters on defense and will need to replace star running back Brashard Smith.
TCU takes advantage of a slow start for the Mustangs to improve the 3-1 against their rivals under Dykes.
Sept. 26 at Arizona State
Result: TCU loses 31-26 (3-1).
Breakdown: TCU continues its midseason gauntlet with a road trip to the defending Big 12 champions. The Sun Devils lost star running back Cam Skattebo, but return quarterback Sam Leavitt, star receiver Jordyn Tyson and 10 starters on an underrated defense.
The Horned Frogs will play well in spurts, but Arizona State finds a way to take advantage of TCU’s questionable special teams and run game to pull out the Friday night victory.
Oct. 4 vs. Colorado
Result: TCU wins 34-21 (4-1).
Breakdown: Sanders and the Buffaloes shocked TCU in the season opener in 2023, as the 45-42 win launched the stardom of Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders. Many of Colorado’s stars from that team are off to the NFL, but that shouldn’t impact TCU’s desire for payback. The Buffs return most of their offensive line, including former five-star recruit Jordan Seaton, but the rest of the offense will be brand new, including quarterback Kaidon Salter.
Colorado keeps it close early, but TCU pulls away in the second half thanks to big performances by Hoover and McAlister.
Oct. 11 at Kansas State
Result: TCU loses 27-20 (4-2).
Breakdown: Even though the Wildcats opened the season with a loss to Iowa State, the trip to Manhattan still projects to be one of TCU’s most difficult games. Avery Johnson is a dynamic dual threat at quarterback, and Kansas State’s defense looks formidable after holding the Cyclones to just 6.5 yards per pass and 2.8 yards per carry. Wide receiver Jayce Brown also looks to be the Wildcats’ top utility weapon after accounting for over 100 total yards and a touchdown.
TCU makes it close late, but the Horned Frogs drop their fourth straight game in Manhattan.
Oct. 18 vs. Baylor
Result: TCU wins 44-37 (5-2).
Breakdown: The rivals played an instant classic last season, with the Bears hitting a last-second field goal to defeat TCU 37-34. The rematch in Fort Worth should be just as entertaining, as Hoover gets in a quarterback duel with Sawyer Robertson. Baylor running back Bryson Washington might be the best in the Big 12, which will make the game more difficult, but TCU also wasn’t healthy on the defensive line last season, leading to a breakout game by Washington.
Hoover plays his best game of the season, and a healthy defensive line makes a key play on Baylor’s final drive to pull out the win.
Oct. 25 at West Virginia
Result: TCU wins 30-28 (6-2).
Breakdown: Morgantown hasn’t been kind to TCU historically, with the Horned Frogs losing three of the past four games there. Even during TCU’s run to the national title game in 2022, the Mountaineers gave the Horned Frogs a scare before a 41-31 win. The Mountaineers are projected to struggle to get to bowl eligibility in Rich Rodriguez’s first season back in Morgantown, but West Virginia can’t be overlooked.
TCU doesn’t play particularly well, but does enough to survive an upset bid.
Nov. 8 vs. Iowa State
Result: TCU loses 28-21 (6-3).
Breakdown: The Cyclones were Big-12 runners-up last season and started this year with a strong win over rival Kansas State. Ranked No. 22 before the victory over the No. 17 Wildcats, Iowa State is one of the favorites in the league. The Cyclones return quarterback Rocco Becht but still have to replace two NFL receivers. Against Kansas State, Iowa State leaned on its running back duo of Abu Sama and Carson Hansen to overcome the rainy conditions in Ireland.
Defensively, Iowa State still looks like one of the league’s best. The Cyclones find a way to limit TCU’s running game and force a critical mistake by Hoover to defeat the Horned Frogs on the road.
Nov. 15 at BYU
Result: TCU wins 23-17 (7-3).
Breakdown: This game looked much more challenging before BYU’s starting quarterback from last year, Jake Retzlaff, departed for Tulane after being suspended for violating the school’s honor code. The Cougars should still be formidable on defense and Chase Roberts is a top receiver, but the Horned Frogs have more firepower and will pick up a win.
Nov. 22 at Houston
Result: TCU wins 33-17 (8-3).
Breakdown: Houston stunned TCU in Fort Worth last year 30-19 as the Cougars shut down Hoover and the offense. Houston should be better offensively this season with the arrival of Texas A&M transfer Conner Weigman, but many of the Cougars’ top defenders departed for bigger schools in the transfer portal.
TCU flusters Weigman and jumps out to a big halftime lead before cruising to another league win.
Nov. 29 vs. Cincinnati
Result: TCU wins 30-14 (9-3).
Breakdown: The Horned Frogs close the season with another matchup with the Bearcats. TCU survived the elements to narrowly avoid an upset at Cincinnati last year 20-13, but facing the Bearcats in Texas should make the matchup easier. Cincinnati returns quarterback Brendan Sorsby and star defensive linemen Dontay Corleone, but the Bearcats have to replace 1,000-yard rusher Corey Kiner and leading receiver Xzavier Henderson.
TCU’s offense makes key plays late to pull away and pick up win No. 9.
Conclusion
TCU has another good — but not great — season, with the Horned Frogs just missing the Big 12 title game.
