Texas Senate rundown: Talarico veep talk, very close polls and more | Opinion
Texas’ U.S. Senate contest is producing a steady stream of headlines, with Democrat James Talarico polling ahead of both potential Republican nominees while Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton head into a tight May 26 runoff.
Here’s a sampling of the latest reporting in the race — and my analysis of what each development could signal for November.
Days until the Republican runoff: 17
Days until the general election: 178
What polls show in Senate runoff, November matchup
On the Republican side, a University of Houston Hobby School poll of 1,200 likely GOP runoff voters found Paxton leading Cornyn, 48% to 45%, with supporters of third-place primary finisher U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt breaking toward Paxton by a 19-point margin, according to the Texas Tribune.
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll released in late April showed Talarico defeating Paxton by 5 points (46% to 41%) and edging Cornyn by 3 points (44% to 41%), with the Cornyn margin falling within the survey’s 2.5-percentage-point margin of error, my colleague Eleanor Dearman reported.
My take: Polling is much more challenging than it used to be, and polling in runoffs has always been difficult because it’s a smaller electorate and thus harder to reach voters certain to turn out. These results help demonstrate, though, why alarm bells are ringing loudly in Republican circles. Talarico’s campaign is well-funded, and every sign indicates that he’ll remain competitive, making for an expensive, tough race to hold a GOP seat even as Republicans try to fend off a Democratic takeover of the Senate nationwide.
The runoff between Paxton and Cornyn feels like a genuine toss-up. Fundamentals continue to favor Paxton, who is more aligned with the hard-core base voter likely to turn out in a runoff. But polls missed that Cornyn would lead in the first round of voting, and a 24-year incumbent has hidden strengths, while Paxton’s difficulties — including that he’s an easier mark for Talarico — are apparent to all but the most blind loyalists.
Blue Texas? Not so fast, these polls suggest
Star-Telegram columnist Bud Kennedy cautions that Talarico’s polling strength masks a tougher structural environment for Democrats. The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll now shows voters identifying as Republican over Democrat by 10 points, up from a 3-point margin in 2018. Also, 50% hold an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party and 35% say the Bible is the literal word of God, up from 28% eight years ago.
My take: Texas Democrats have, with justification, gotten excited over a string of developments that include a nationwide trend their way in elections, strong turnout among their base voters even in nonpartisan local races, and perhaps most of all, the shocking win by Democrat Taylor Rehmet in a special Tarrant County state Senate election.
But the mountain they must climb hasn’t shrunk, even if their legs are stronger.
Republicans start out statewide races with an expected edge of at least 800,000 votes. Their candidates beyond Talarico are little-known and poorly funded. Their party infrastructure has withered compared with the Republican machine that dominates the state.
So, yes, there are more reasons for the party to hope for a breakthrough than in years. But with Gov. Greg Abbott and his vast warchest and campaign apparatus pulling the Republican wagon, a statewide Democratic win of any kind would still be a stunning upset.
Hear that buzz? National Democrats are falling fast for Talarico
My most recent column examines whether Talarico could be tapped as a 2028 vice presidential pick, after podcaster Scott Galloway said on “Pivot” that a victory would make him “likely or very likely” to land on the Democratic ticket. In a February Editorial Board interview, Talarico pledged to serve a full six-year Senate term if elected and pushed back on the speculation as premature. Read the whole column to find a fascinating parallel from 20 years ago.
My take: As I’ve said before, national political reporters love to come to Texas to eat barbecue and Tex-Mex on an expense account write about the next great Democratic hope. If Talarico stays close in the polls and continues his Beto O’Rourke-level fundraising, the glowing profiles and headlines about a blue Texas will be hard to dodge.
Democrats have a history of falling for young, handsome, articulate candidates who they believe win over the other side by presenting some new paradigm in politics. Talarico may fit the mold, but even if he doesn’t, plenty of Democrats (and journalists) will talk themselves into believe that he does.
