If politics is a game of expectations, Texan John Cornyn just won big | Opinion
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Cornyn’s surprise first-place finish reshapes expectations and weakens Paxton’s path.
- Trump’s endorsement could end Paxton’s bid and consolidate Republican backing for Cornyn.
- Paxton’s decade of scandals and controversy may have weakened his appeal.
Expectations and results can be the chicken-and-egg of politics. The perception of an election is often built on what people think will happen before it actually does.
In that sense, Sen. John Cornyn’s narrow first-place finish in Tuesday night’s Republican primary was an earthquake. It changed level-setting for the entire race — and may even have cleared the path for an early end to his bloody battle with Ken Paxton.
Just about everyone closely watching the race figured the most likely outcome was a runoff between Cornyn, seeking a fifth term in Washington, and Paxton, the three-term attorney general. But some held out the possibility that Paxton could win an outright majority and avoid a second round. More (including me) thought he could rack up a large enough win that, while short of ending the contest, would put the writing on the wall for Cornyn. And few expected the senator to actually finish in first place.
Now that he has, everything looks different. President Donald Trump says he’ll make an endorsement and urge the odd man out to end his candidacy; at least one early report says he has settled on Cornyn. Trump’s sway with Republican voters is powerful enough that he could, like a Roman emperor, deliver a life-or-death verdict with the flick of his wrist.
Texas Senate primary was a bad night for Ken Paxton
To understand how this unexpected result came about, it helps to consider the algebra of political scandal. But first, let’s dig into how bad it really was for Paxton.
As of Wednesday afternoon, with more than 95% of the vote tallied, Cornyn leads by a little over 1 percentage point, so let’s not call it a blowout or anything close. But again, weigh it against the backdrop of expectations:
- Paxton won his home county, Collin, by fewer than 1,000 votes. The GOP there has been the base of his power for his entire political career. His connections there, especially with influential conservative Christians, helped launch him from unknown state House member to attorney general in about a decade.
- He lost every major urban county in Texas, most by a lot. Yes, these are largely Democratic strongholds now, but they still account for tens of thousands of Republican primary votes.
- Paxton did better in the suburban and exurban areas that are Republican strongholds, but in most, his margins weren’t enough to make up for losses elsewhere.
Every election is the function of almost countless variables. In this case, though, it’s fair to wonder if the weight of scandal finally caught up with Paxton.
His ethical troubles have been addressed recently with a shorthand that focuses on the collapse of his marriage, especially in the national news media. When your wife, a sitting state senator, says she’s filed for divorce on “biblical grounds,” that’s bound to happen.
Adultery in and of itself, though, is rarely enough to sink a politician. In Paxton’s case, Texas voters have been exposed to more than a decade of revelations about his character. It started during his initial run for attorney general, when he was accused by business partners of failing to disclose his interests in businesses he touted. Paxton faced securities fraud charges that lingered for a decade.
Paxton’s cover-up, impeachment and betrayals of conservatism
Then there was the revelation of an initial affair, accusations of official favors done for a donor and friend who helped cover it up, and concerns that Paxton wasn’t exactly elbow deep in running a shipshape attorney general’s office. The Texas House impeached him, but Senate Republicans couldn’t overcome political resistance to convict and remove Paxton from office.
Less noticed but still relevant, there have been deviations from conservatism that irked plenty of Republicans, including a steady expansion of state interference with schools, universities and businesses.
And never forget the saga of the purloined pen. Paxton was caught on video taking an expensive Montblanc from a courthouse-scanner tray that someone else clearly left behind. He said it was an accident and returned it to its rightful owner.
Let’s revise the old chestnut a bit: Character is what you do when only a security camera is watching.
How many of these details could the average Texan, even a dedicated primary voter, rattle off? Probably not a lot. But they add up to a general impression that was confirmed for many when Paxton’s marriage ended.
Who needs six more years of all that?
It would be beyond ironic if Trump delivered the fatal blow to Paxton’s career, considering there appears to be no limit to what Paxton would do to win the president’s favor. But Trump’s priority is always Trump. And he’s shrewd. If he sees months of difficulty and expense for his party to keep a seat it has held since 1961 and he can sweep that problem away now, he’s likely to do so.
In his campaign, Paxton has enjoyed jabbing at Cornyn’s age and longevity, noting that Cornyn has been in elected office since Paxton was in college. It’ll be quite ironic if, thanks in part to Paxton’s own misdeeds, Cornyn ends up being the new Comeback Kid.
This story was originally published March 4, 2026 at 4:24 PM.
