In brutal Texas Senate runoff, here’s how Cornyn attacks could backfire | Opinion

Think of it this way: Just 12 more weeks, and we’ll have all the answers from the Texas primary season. Twelve weeks of slashing and burning as candidates unable to reach that 50 percent threshold Tuesday night try to generate a decisive win by turning out voters on — take a deep breath — May 26.

Temperatures will rise by then, and it won’t just be the weather. In the U.S. Senate Republican contest, we will experience springtime skies filled with pollen and airwaves filled with back-and-forth attacks between incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton after they finished neck-and-neck Tuesday but short of the margin needed to win outright.

For that, you can thank Rep. Wesley Hunt, who mysteriously entered the race with no evidence that there was a lane for success open to him. If it had appeared that Ken Paxton was damaged goods or that Cornyn had worn out most of his welcome, that would have been one thing. But there is ample reason to believe that Paxton would have won outright in a two-man race.

Cornyn has money, long record; Paxton has voter passion

It’s a two-man race now. Is it Paxton’s to lose? If history is a guide, the more conservative, grassroots-friendly GOP voters tend to come out more reliably than the centrist establishment-flavored brand. But Cornyn is an iconic figure with a vast campaign war chest. Speaking to reporters Tuesday night, he promised more dirt on Paxton in runoff ads that will apparently echo the months he has spent characterizing the attorney as a dreadful human being.

That may not be the best use of his time. The Cornyn ads that have burnished his Trump loyalty credentials were his best, the message coming down to: “You don’t have to vote for Ken Paxton to have a MAGA senator.” Some believe that and some don’t, but it is a constructive, uplifting message in stark contrast to the tawdry, grainy images that will shout with tabloid relish the various personal issues that have arisen around Paxton. Such an attack also opens the door for Paxton to paint Cornyn as more interested in smearing him than in defending his record.

If Cornyn had finished at 49% with Paxton 20 points behind, twisting the scandal knife might make more sense. As it is, there may be a fatigue factor for that approach. Paxton will be reaching out to the roughly 14% of voters who opted for Hunt. Cornyn would do well to court them, too, and that might mean reining in those of his allies who took the surprisingly dumb path of insulting Hunt voters the moment the results were clear.

The Senate Leadership Fund, an incumbent-protection operation, understandably took aim at Hunt during the campaign. But with the Houston congressman and his voters nursing the sting of loss, the political committee posted a statement referring to Hunt’s “career-ending vanity tour” that featured an “abysmal third-place finish” and forced voters to “endure an even longer primary runoff election.” Not exactly a friendly invitation to join forces.

That haughty sense of entitlement is something the Cornyn team should guard against. “I’ve been here a long time, and I can get the job done” is a good approach. “If I lose, there will be a Republican bloodbath” is less so, and that has been a lot of the Cornyn message.

Paxton voters see character as fighting for conservatism

If any message will prod the Paxton base to the polls, it is the triple whammy that your guy can’t win, your guy is a loathsome person and, for a cherry on top, you don’t care about character.

“Character is on the ballot” has been a familiar Cornyn refrain, and it is not a baseless point if he wishes to spend his time comparing personal lives. But the most passionate Republican voters increasingly define character as standing for conservative principles and working tirelessly to enact them. Everyone would like blemish-free standard-bearers, but the differences that count most at the moment involve the capacity for fighting for victories against the left.

Which brings us to Democratic nominee James Talarico, who will spend the next eight months trying to define himself as somehow separated from his party’s left flank, despite views and a voting record that are far from moderate. The attempt to soften and broaden his appeal with the trappings of faith will find a tougher audience in a general election than he has enjoyed so far in the nurturing womb of podcasts and late-night TV.

His curious portrayal of the Bible contains a God ambivalent about abortion and a Jesus who requires open borders. That may play well among Democrats eager to fashion a scriptural basis for their views, but in a Texas that is still red, his approach will be a much tougher sell.

Democrats are looking to revisit the adrenaline of Beto O’Rourke’s competitive race with Ted Cruz in 2018, and they dream for an end to a 32-year losing streak in statewide races. The only way that happens in November is if Republicans hand it to them.

No matter who prevails after months of Paxton-Cornyn carnage, it will be the losers’ solemn responsibility to dust off, get over themselves and unite to prevent a Talarico win. There is cause for profound concern about that. If it happens, the blame will be properly laid at the feet of GOP voters who were so wounded by the loss of their guy that they were willing to throw a tantrum and let a Democrat win.

Mark Davis hosts a morning radio show in Dallas-Fort Worth on 660-AM and at 660amtheanswer.com. Follow him on X: @markdavis.

This story was originally published March 4, 2026 at 12:19 PM.