Is it John Cornyn or Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico? Trump holds the key | Opinion
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Cornyn and Paxton head to runoff with Trump's endorsement to decide winner.
- Senate race has topped $100M, influencing national GOP resource choices.
- Democrats nominated James Talarico and gained fodder for November.
Everybody won in the U.S. Senate primary.
Texas Republicans won by lifting U.S. Sen. John Cornyn into a runoff against bullish challenger Ken Paxton. They also won the right to brag over Dallas County’s disorganized Democratic election officials.
Texas Democrats won by nominating a powerhouse fundraiser and Senate challenger in state Rep. James Talarico.
They also won when they got to complain, “The Republicans robbed us of our votes!”
Mostly, both parties picked up another ton of campaign fodder for November — as if they didn’t have enough already in a Senate race that has already cost more than $100 million.
That was the ultimate outcome on an Election Night when Democratic voters swamped the party’s polling places and Republicans efficiently lined up their statewide runoff elections May 26.
Now, all eyes are on the White House.
President Donald Trump will pick whether Cornyn or Paxton wins the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. His endorsement — which he promises soon — is worth an estimated 10 percentage points in the polls.
With Cornyn showing resilience, Trump was expected to make a thrifty decision and endorse the candidate who won’t need a $200 million campaign to overcome a Texas-sized wagonload of personal baggage.
But when does Trump ever do what’s expected?
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick is closest to Trump’s ear. He proved that when Trump issued late endorsements for comptroller candidate Don Huffines and Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, picking both over Gov. Greg Abbott’s own candidates Kelly Hancock and Nate Sheets.
Huffines surged ahead without a runoff and will face Austin Democratic state Sen. Sarah Eckhardt in November.
Miller lost to Sheets, 52%-48%, but won Election Day voting. So Trump’s endorsement simply came too late.
Patrick, a Trump whisperer and the president’s state campaign chairman, might have insisted he choose Paxton as an equally soiled but more MAGA-minded candidate.
Or Patrick might have saved Republicans money for other states by recommending Cornyn. After all, he already leads Talarico in polls.
Trump had “200 million reasons” to endorse Cornyn, Republican advertising consultant Vinny Minchillo of Plano-based Glass House Strategy said on WFAA/Channel 8’s election coverage.
Republican consultant Alfredo Rodriguez of Dallas-based DYCE Communications predicted Trump would make a “business decision.”
“There are gonna be a lot of senators telling him, ‘We need to endorse John Cornyn,’ “ Rodriguez said. “We need to take this money that would have to be spent in this race and put it in places like Michigan, places like North Carolina.”
Democratic consultant Matt Angle of the Washington, D.C.-based Lone Star Project identified the real winner of the Republican runoff: Texas Democrats.
“We’ll have two and a half months of [Cornyn and Paxton] just beating the crap out of each other on TV,” Angle said.
This was a $100 million primary solely to win one man’s vote.
This story was originally published March 4, 2026 at 1:42 AM.
