Texas Politics

Democrat James Talarico leads Republicans Cornyn, Paxton in new Texas Senate poll

U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico addresses supporters on election night on March 03, 2026, in Austin, Texas. He leads Republicans John Cornyn and Ken Paxton in a new poll.
U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico addresses supporters on election night on March 03, 2026, in Austin, Texas. He leads Republicans John Cornyn and Ken Paxton in a new poll. Getty Images

State Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas, would defeat Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton in a November general election matchup, according to a new poll.

The poll released by Texas Public Opinion Research on Tuesday put Talarico 5 points ahead of Paxton and 3 points ahead of Cornyn, winning with 46% and 44% of votes.

Talarico’s projected lead over Cornyn is within the poll’s 3.3 percentage point margin of error.

Texas Public Opinion Research, whose director is Democratic Strategist Luke Warford, is a “nonpartisan initiative dedicated to studying Texans’ beliefs, values, and policy preferences,” according to its website.

The poll surveyed more than 1,000 likely voters between April 17 and April 20.

Cornyn, the longtime incumbent, and Paxton are in a May 26 runoff to win the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.

Early voting starts May 18 and runs through May 22.

The poll also found that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa with 48% of votes in his reelection bid.

Forty-five percent of those surveyed said they’d vote for state Sen. Mayes Middleton or U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, who are in a runoff for Texas attorney general, over Joe Jaworski or Sen. Nathan Johnson, Democrats who are also in a runoff.

The general election is on Nov. 3.

Eleanor Dearman
Fort Worth Star-Telegram
Eleanor (Elly) Dearman is a Texas politics and government reporter for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. She’s based in Austin, covering the Legislature and its impact on North Texas. She grew up in Denton and has been a reporter for more than six years. Support my work with a digital subscription
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