‘Above normal’ rainfall is on the way for North Texas in August, CPC says
Typically, August is one of the driest months of the year for North Texas.
The normal monthly rain total for August is 2.18 inches, which is second behind the lowest total of the year so far, at 2.08 inches in July, according to the National Weather Service Fort Worth.
Nevertheless, August rain totals in North Texas are already off to a strong start, thanks to storms over the first weekend of the month. In total, 1.34 inches of rain have been recorded this month as of Aug. 4.
As the month progresses, just how much more rain is expected in North Texas? Let’s take a look.
Above normal rainfall on the horizon
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day precipitation outlook is showing that rainfall totals are “leaning above” normal.
Issued on Aug. 4 and valid from Aug. 10-14, the outlook is predicting above normal rainfall for about half of the state, including the Metroplex and parts of Central Texas. Everything west of the two regions has chances for “near normal” rainfall.
For a longer outlook, the CPC’s 8-14 day outlook (valid from Aug. 12-18) is also showing that rainfall is “leaning above” normal for North Texas. As for the rest of the state, the outlook nearly mirrors the same prediction seen in the 6-10 day model.
Above-normal precipitation doesn’t always equate to extreme rainfall, according to the NWS. Instead, above-normal could simply mean rainfall totals are a few inches above the normal parameters.
The 3-4 week outlook, valid from Aug. 16-29, paints a picture for later in the month, as there’s “equal chances” for precipitation for nearly all of the state.
When forecasters use “equal chances,” it means they think an area has three possible outcomes — well above, well below, or near normal — that are all equally likely, according to the CPC. Or, sometimes it means that there are no strong influences that would favor one outcome over another
How much rain has August received over the last few years?
The normal monthly total for precipitation for August is 2.18 inches, according to the NWS.
Here’s a look at how much rain the Metroplex has recorded over the last five Augusts:
- 2024- 0.41 inch
- 2023- Trace amounts, which is anything below 0.01 inch
- 2022- 10.68 inches
- 2021- 4.82 inches
- 2020- 1.28 inches
