How tariffs could impact parents shopping for back-to-school supplies
With new tariffs in place, back to school shoppers are getting to it earlier than normal this year, new data shows.
The National Retail Federation on July 15 released its annual survey showing 67 percent of school-goers already started their back-to-school shopping. This is the highest percentage since NRF started tracking back-to-school shopping in 2018.
NRF says that’s due to a growing concern of the impact of tariffs.
The first day of school for Fort Worth Independent School District is Tuesday, Aug. 12. The Texas Sales Tax weekend is Aug. 8-10. With less than a month to prepare, there’s more incentive to start now.
Here’s a closer look at back-to-school shopping data and whether the tariffs will impact shoppers.
Which tariffs are currently in place?
As of July 14, there is a 27.9 percent broad tariff rate set on all Chinese imports, per the Yale Budget Lab.
China is the world’s top exporter of school supplies, equating $1.4 billion, while the U.S. is the top importer of plastic school and office supplies, equating $467 million.
According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, the U.S. imported $359 million worth of plastic school and office supplies from China in 2024.
The Budget Yale Lab estimates an overall 2.1 percent price increase for consumers due to tariffs — an average loss of $3,400-$4,200 per household.
How much do U.S. consumers spend on school and office supplies?
According to the NRF, consumers will spend approximately $39.4 billion on school supplies for K-12 students. For college students, they predict $88.8 billion worth of spending.
Stationery and school supply prices have risen 30 percent since 2021, according to Deloitte’s 2025 back-to-school survey.
“K-12 shoppers are budgeting $295.81 on average for electronics ($13.6 billion total), $249.36 for clothing and accessories ($11.4 billion total), $169.13 for shoes ($7.8 billion total) and $143.77 for school supplies ($6.6 billion total),” reports the NRF.
Shoes are another product that consumers can expect a price increase with. Axios reports that almost every shoe sold in the U.S. is imported from China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia and Bangladesh. The Budget Lab estimated in its July 14 report prices rising as much as 44 percent for a pair of shoes.
Where consumers shop for back-to-school
The most popular K-12 and college student back-to-school shopping destination is online, according to the NRF. Here’s more of a breakdown:
K-12 consumers:
Online: 55 percent
Department Stores: 48 percent
Discount Stores: 47 percent
Clothing Stores: 41 percent
College consumers:
Online: 48 percent
Discount Stores: 36 percent
Department Stores: 35 percent
College Bookstores: 27 percent