3 reasons why TCU football will — or won’t — win on the road at West Virginia
West Virginia has struggled in coach Rich Rodriguez’s first season back in Morgantown, but that doesn’t mean an upset isn’t possible if TCU doesn’t bring its best effort.
The Mountaineers have had the advantage recently in the series, with five wins in the past six matchups, including defeating the Horned Frogs 24-21 in Fort Worth in 2023.
TCU (5-2, 2-2 Big 12) will aim to avenge that recent defeat, and a win would also set the Horned Frogs up for a massive four-game stretch to end the season after a bye next week. Despite West Virginia’s record (2-5, 0-4), there’s still plenty on the line for TCU.
Here are three reasons why the Horned Frogs will, or won’t, win Saturday’s 5 p.m. game at West Virginia:
Three reasons TCU will defeat West Virginia
1. Talent gap
Even if the Mountaineers were healthy, TCU would be the more talented team across the board. West Virginia is in the process of a rebuild, while TCU entered the season expecting to contend. The Horned Frogs have been one of the better teams in the league so far, and West Virginia will be without its starting quarterback and top two running backs.
From a pure personnel standpoint, there’s no reason TCU shouldn’t come out on top.
2. Limited West Virginia offense
Injuries have severely impacted the flexibility of the West Virginia offense.
The Mountaineers have relied on Khalil Wilkins and Scotty Fox Jr. at quarterback since Nicco Marchiol’s injury, and both have had their struggles passing the ball. The Mountaineers have one of the nation’s worst passing offenses with an average of just 158.7 yards per game. The passing offense has gotten worse since Marchiol’s injury, and Wilkins was listed as questionable on the player availability report.
Wilkins’ ability as a runner could prove problematic at times, but Fox isn’t the same type of dual threat. No matter who plays, TCU will face a severely limited passing offense.
3. The wide receivers
Another area TCU should have a big advantage is at wide receiver, led by Eric McAlister and Jordan Dwyer. The Mountaineers have one of the worst passing defenses in the Big 12, allowing 247.1 yards per game. That should mean the Horned Frogs should have plenty of chances to exploit the Mountaineers’ secondary, even if freshman wide receiver Ed Small isn’t available.
McAlister, Dwyer and Joseph Manjack have all had 100-yard games this season, and TCU’s tight end room could make life tough on West Virginia in the middle of the field. Quarterback Josh Hoover should have a big day passing.
Three reasons TCU will be upset at West Virginia
1. Josh Hoover struggles on the road
If Hoover plays like he has in Fort Worth throughout his career, then TCU should have no problem against the Mountaineers. But if the quarterbacks plays like he did against Kansas State and Arizona State, then this game could be a lot closer than anticipated. Turnovers will be the key stat, as West Virginia’s sole strength has been its ability to force takeaways.
Meanwhile, six of Hoover’s eight turnovers this year have come on the road. If TCU wins the turnover battle, it will win this game. If Hoover has multiple turnovers, then anything is possible.
2. Wacky run game?
If Wilkins is available, then it’ll be no surprise if the Mountaineers rely on a creative run scheme that will throw every single run concept at the TCU defense. Quarterback-involved run games are always more challenging to defend because of the extra blocker available for the quarterback, and West Virginia has shown it’s not afraid to lean heavily on the quarterback. Wilkins has 38 carries in the past two games.
It could be like facing a triple option team for TCU, and that could cause some havoc if the Horned Frogs aren’t disciplined.
3. Morgantown momentum
Like Manhattan or Ames, Morgantown has become a place where TCU hasn’t played its best football. West Virginia has won three of the past four games in Morgantown, with the sole win coming from the Max Duggan-led TCU playoff team in 2022. There’s just something about that environment that makes the game more difficult.
TCU didn’t handle the environments at Arizona State and Kansas State well. If the same thing happens against West Virginia, the Horned Frogs will be in a dogfight in the second half.
Prediction
TCU is the more talented team, has a much better quarterback and has more healthy playmakers available than West Virginia.
The Horned Frogs score a late touchdown to pull away and win 35-17.
This story was originally published October 24, 2025 at 10:39 AM.
