Why has this North Texas winter storm been so hard to predict?
North Texas began the week with cool and dry skies, but will end it with snow and freezing temperatures. An Arctic cold front will arrive in the afternoon hours on Friday, Jan. 23, bringing rain chances along with it, according to the National Weather Service Fort Worth.
But ahead of the winter weather arriving this weekend, certain things have changed as the week progressed. Some of those include storm timing, precipitation totals and what type of wintry mix the Metroplex will see. The greater cold front, which will eventually affect close to half of the U.S. population, has also kept weather experts busy with predictions this week, according to the New York Times.
Why is that? Here’s what to know.
Why has the winter storm been hard to predict in North Texas?
NWS meteorologist Allison Prater said the reason the forecast has changed this week is simply due to how the new information becomes available.
The weather station receives new data from multiple model runs every six hours. Between the medium and long-term guidance, there can be some discrepancies.
According to meteorologists interviewed by the New York Times, this is what’s known as the “funnel” of certainty. As a weather event nears, the NWS’ high resolution guidance paints a clearer picture, Prater said. Typically, that happens just a couple of days out from storms.
“As you get closer in time, it just gets clearer and clearer,” Prater said.
How can wintry mix change when the temperature changes?
North Texas can expect a wintry mix this weekend, which could range from sleet to freezing rain and snow. If the temperature shifts one way or another, that could determine what kind of precipitation falls, Prater said.
For example, snow falls when the air is at or below freezing while sleet pellets can form a degree or two above freezing.
Sleet or freezing rain forms when ice falls through the atmosphere and hits what’s called a warm nose, which is a layer of warm air. Below the warm layer is what the NWS calls a refreezing layer.
If the ice melts completely through the warm layer, it will likely reach the ground as cold rain. But if the ice partially melts, there’s a chance that it will refreeze before it reaches the ground as sleet.
It all depends on the temperature above and at the surface, Prater said.
“A few degrees doesn’t sound like much, but it does change what exactly we get at the surface,” Prater said. “Whether that’s freezing rain, sleet or snow.”
Is cobblestone ice possible this weekend?
In 2013, North Texans battled “cobblestone ice.”
This occurrence came from a mix of factors like tire compaction, melting/re-freezing and sand treatment on roadways. The combination produced “cobblestone ice,” which the NWS describes as frozen precipitation that was reformed into rock hard formations.
Ahead of the winter storm this weekend, is “cobblestone ice” possible in North Texas?
NWS meteorologist Monique Sellers said “cobblestone ice” is rare, but there are situations sometimes where freezing and melting and refreezing can cause horrible conditions. The 2013 storm is likely on people’s minds as this new event approaches, Sellers added.
Every weather event is different, and the organization tries to refrain from comparing one to the other, Sellers said. That being said, the NWS is keeping a close eye on how roadways will be impacted after whichever type of wintry mix falls over the weekend.
Another thing to note is that since the region will not get above freezing for several days, whatever is impacting roadways over the weekend will likely continue into early next week.
“It’s going to take some time for that to thaw out, especially because the temperature is going to be really slow to recover,” Sellers said.
This story was originally published January 22, 2026 at 1:51 PM.
