What can North Texas expect this winter? National Weather Service shares outlook
Winter is right around the corner for North Texas.
Several weather organizations have released winter outlooks over the past few months, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. AccuWeather, the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmers’ Almanac have also published outlooks.
Now, the National Weather Service’s Fort Worth office recently published its findings for the winter season, which lasts from December 2025 to February 2026.
Here’s what to know.
What to expect in North Texas this winter
Weak La Niña conditions are forecast to start the winter season in North Texas, but then transition into “Neutral” conditions, according to the NWS.
La Niña is the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean, which occurs every three to five years. “Neutral” is neither La Niña or El Niño, instead being the third phase is what’s known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a recurring climate pattern.
Typically, La Niña conditions tend to favor better chances for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation in North Texas.
However, weak La Niña conditions are less likely to result in the typical outcome. Plus, the transition to neutral conditions may favor better chances for precipitation later in the winter season, according to the NWS.
What the NWS is certain of this winter
As of now, here’s what the NWS is certain of this winter:
- At least one winter weather event will occur
- Arctic air will arrive and occur
- Drought conditions are likely to develop and/or continue this winter
- Fire weather concerns will start and potentially continue through the entire season
In addition, the NWS said North Texas has never had a winter season without winter precipitation since they began keeping records in the late 1800s. It’s not if, but when.
What the NWS is less certain of this winter
On the flip side, here’s what the NWS is less certain of this winter:
- Temperature deviations from normal, whether that be above or below
- Monthly and seasonal precipitation deviations from normal, whether that be above or below
- What form of precipitation may occur after switching to ENSO-Neutral
- The frequency and severity of arctic outbreaks
- The number and intensity of winter weather events
- Sub-seasonal anomalies may reduce or reverse the warm/dry trend
While this is a snapshot of how things are expected to look in the future, subsequent weeks’ and days’ forecast will give a better look at what to expect as the date grows near, according to the NWS.
