Snow, subfreezing temperatures potentially in the mix for Fort Worth in early 2025
North Texas could see snow and subfreezing temperatures just a couple weeks into 2025, according to recent modeling from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.
The CPC released its 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook on Dec. 30, which is valid from Jan. 7-13, 2025. The modeling shows northerly winds from the Canadian Arctic moving through much of the central and eastern parts of the country.
This means that subfreezing temperatures will be likely in much of Texas, except for in southern portions of the state, during the Jan. 7-13 timeline, according to the CPC.
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Additionally, the CPC said there’s increased chances of heavy snow for much of the eastern part of the country in the middle of the Jan. 7-13 timeline.
Northerly winds from Canada and surface low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes are the reason for the snow chances, according to the CPC. Furthermore, the snow chances could extend into the lower Mississippi valley and southern plains region as a cold front moves over the Great Plains and taps into moisture off the Gulf of Mexico.
Currently, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast ensemble shows snowfall totals exceeding 1.5 inches over the North Texas region during the Jan. 7-13 timeline, according to the CPC. The same snowfall total are also expected into regions of Arkansas and Tennessee.
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While still over a week away, the local NWS office in Fort Worth has responded to the CPC’s outlook for winter weather in North Texas. Here’s what they said.
What does NWS Fort Worth know for certain?
NWS Fort Worth meteorologist Miles Langfeld wrote the following on the station’s forecasters discussion page on Tuesday, Dec. 31:
“So far, the most likely scenario does involve much colder conditions following Sunday’s (Jan. 5) cold front with very high probabilities (more than 90% chance) of below normal temperatures (high and low) next week.”
Given the northwest Canada and Arctic Ocean origins of the air mass, Langfeld said these are likely to be “some of the coldest temperatures we have seen so far this season.”
“Probabilistic guidance is currently showing the 10th percentile (“reasonable low-end/cold scenario”) has highs in the mid-20s to lower 30s and lows as low as the upper teens to lower 20s by next Tuesday, [Jan. 7],” Langeld said. “Meanwhile, the 90th percentile (“reasonable high-end/warm scenario”) shows highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s with only a few areas near or below 32 degrees.”
What does NWS Fort Worth not know yet?
In addition to writing about what the NWS Fort Worth is certain about, Langfeld also noted about what isn’t certain as of yet, including:
“How cold will it actually be. There remains a significant amount of spread among ensemble members making this part of the forecast challenging still.”
Langfeld said the station does not know the resident time the air mass will have over North Texas and if any modification will occur. Another unknown is the vertical temperature profile and potential for frozen precipitation next week.
“The bottom line is colder temperatures will impact a large portion of the country next week,” Langfeld said. “Remain vigilant in following trusted sources for updates to the forecast, and beware of any conclusions drawn from a single run of a deterministic model.”
This story was originally published December 31, 2024 at 12:13 PM.
