Can North Texas expect cold temps in 2022? Forecasts show winter storm is ‘unlikely’

North Texas may not have much to worry about when it comes to cold temperatures this season, according to forecasts from the National Weather Service.

The region is projected to have a mild winter, which will reduce the likelihood of the massive power grid failures Texans experienced during February’s winter storm.

Dallas-Fort Worth has a 64% probability of exceeding the average daily temperature of 47.5 degrees Fahrenheit during the months of December, January and February, according to Victor Murphy, the climate service program manager for the National Weather Service’s southern regional headquarters in Fort Worth.

Texans can expect an average temperature of 48.3 degrees Fahrenheit, which is consistent with an overall warming trend in Texas and across the Southwest. A La Nina episode in the Pacific Ocean’s surface water will more than likely lead to warmer and drier winter conditions across the state, Murphy said.

“Even though we have this overall warming trend, you could still get heavy sudden drops, just like the Dow Jones,” Murphy said. “Right now you have this long-term upward trend in the stock market, but you’re still gonna have your down days, or your cold days.”

Those sudden drops have been extremely rare in North Texas, Murphy said. The DFW region has experienced sub-zero temperatures five times in the 124 years since 1898, with a 32-year gap between freezing weather in 1989 and Winter Storm Uri in 2021.

The record cold this year was the first time that the region went below 10 degrees Fahrenheit since 1996, he added.

“In general, it is clear that the DFW area can expect sub-zero temps to occur on average once every 25 years to perhaps 40 years,” Murphy said. “Will it happen again? Yes. Will it be this winter or next winter? Unlikely.”

While cold snaps in North Texas may be infrequent, the impact of severe weather on infrastructure and homes is acutely felt when winter storms move in, Murphy said.

“The key is going to be having our infrastructure mitigate the impacts and be resilient to the impacts,” he said.

Haley Samsel

Fort Worth Star-Telegram

Haley Samsel was an environmental reporter for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram until 2021. Samsel grew up in Plano and graduated from American University in Washington, D.C.