John Cornyn warns that Ken Paxton could hurt Texas Republicans. But would he?

In a region he called “ground zero” for his Republican runoff campaign, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn stood alongside two Texas House members Sunday and warned that Republicans may lose seats in Washington, Austin and county courthouses if challenger Ken Paxton is the party’s nominee for Senate in November.

However, a new poll from Texas Southern University showed Cornyn and Paxton polling almost equally against the Democratic candidate, Austin state Rep. James Talarico.

Early voting began at 7 a.m. Monday and will end at 7 p.m. Friday in the May 26 a runoff election to choose Cornyn or Paxton, the Texas attorney general, as the Republican candidate for Cornyn’s U.S. Senate seat.

Anyone can vote except those who cast a ballot in the Democratic primary March 3. Voters in Tarrant County can choose any of 37 early-voting locations at tarrantcountytx.gov/en/elections.html.

Cornyn led Paxton, 42%-41%, on March 3. Paxton won Collin County, his home, by 41%-40%.

Standing alongside Collin County state Reps. Jeff Leach, R-McKinney, and Matt Shaheen, R-Prosper, Cornyn said Texas Democrats “smell blood in the water” this election and that the runoff is about “what happens to all these races downballot.”

A pro-Cornyn political committee has circulated an analysis alleging that Paxton would lose and that Shaheen’s election would be close if Paxton is the Senate nominee.

The report also projects that two local Republicans, U.S. Rep. Beth Van Duyne of Irving and state Rep. John McQueeney of Fort Worth, are at risk of losing if Paxton is on the ticket.

However, the new poll from TSU’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy and Research Center showed Cornyn leading Talarico by only 45%-44%, within the margin of error, and Paxton tied with Talarico at 44%.

Notably, 2% of Cornyn’s voters said they would vote for Talarico over Paxton. That gave Cornyn the 1-point edge.

The poll also showed Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick leading Democrats Gina Hinojosa and probable nominee Vikki Goodwin by 6% and 7%, respectively.

During the campaign, Paxton has said Cornyn has been in political office “since I was in college [1985], and I’m 63.” He has said Cornyn can’t name “one great or even good accomplishment” in his tenure.

Paxton was to campaign in Dallas at lunch Monday at a Greenville Avenue restaurant, Ozona, and will appear at lunch Tuesday at an Allen restaurant, Matt’s Rancho Martinez.

In his last campaign in 2020, Cornyn defeated Democrat MJ Hegar by 10 points. That was 4 points better than President Donald Trump’s Texas victory over then-challenger Joe Biden.

The last time Cornyn led the ticket, in 2014, he won by 27 points.

“If the attorney general happens to be the nominee, there’s a good chance we could lose,” Cornyn said. “But even if we were lucky enough to win ... we would not win by a big enough margin to help people downballot.”

Introducing Cornyn, Leach said Paxton “has no business serving you or serving me in the United States Senate” and called Talarico “dangerous.”

Cornyn said without naming Paxton: “I know the attorney general thinks all the scandals that he’s brought with him over the years are already ‘baked into the cake’ and that people don’t care. But I guarantee you, I care, and I believe you care.”

This story was originally published May 18, 2026 at 9:33 AM.