‘We live in new times’: Arlington runoffs will come down to turnout, experts say
Candidates in Arlington’s June 5 mayor and city council runoffs will have to rely on voter enthusiasm for the contenders still standing, experts told the Star-Telegram.
Engendering people to vote will be a challenge in the mayor’s race, considering front-runner Jim Ross ended the May election less than 3% short of winning the race outright. By the end of the night, the attorney and business owner received 47.41% of the 31,182 cast votes. Michael Glaspie, a minister and former council member, came in second with 21.13%.
Craig Murphy, president of consulting firm Murphy Nasica and Associates, said the difference places the odds against Glaspie, who must convince those who voted for him in May to return to the polls, and pitch himself to voters who supported his six opponents.
“He would need to have conversations with literally every voter,” Murphy said in a phone interview.
Murphy’s firm works with Fort Worth mayoral candidate Mattie Parker’s campaign.
Local historian and former Arlington Star-Telegram publisher O.K. Carter said he expected Ross, who holds major endorsements from political figures and political associations, to make a runoff, but did not expect the gap separating him from Glaspie. Five of the seven candidates in the race, including Glaspie, were Black — a dynamic Carter said could have hurt Glaspie’s performance and may benefit him come June.
Carter said he’s never seen a candidate who collected less than than 30% of votes win a runoff.
“But we live in new times, so who knows?” he said.
Early voting runs Monday through June 1. A complete list of voting locations is available on the Tarrant County website. The winner will succeed Mayor Jeff Williams, who is being termed out after six years in office.
The race for southeast Arlington council member is a lot closer than the mayor’s race. Diana Saleh, an account manager, and Nikkie Hunter, a health care administrator, each received around 32% of the votes in District 3. The winner will succeed Marvin Sutton, who ran for mayor instead of a second term.
Brent Boyea, a UT Arlington political science professor, described recent District 3 races as “competitive.” Saleh narrowly led in the general election by 29 votes, but the race could remain a toss-up.
“Voters are interested,” Boyea said. “As long as you have that many voters out there, if they turn out more than they have in prior runoff races, it could be a very open and competitive race.”
Mayor race
Candidates in the first mayoral race without an incumbent since 2003 have pushed a message of how to move the city forward after years of large-scale developments like the construction of Globe Life Field. Each has a cadre of political figures flying their flags.
Ross, 60, kicked off his campaign with support from Williams, former Mayor Richard Greene and former Texas Rangers player Steve Buechele. Ross, a Marine and former Arlington police officer, also received endorsements from all four local police associations. He said in a Star-Telegram questionnaire his policy priorities if elected would be to promote small businesses to grow the economy and attract quality jobs as businesses recover from pandemic-related losses, keep police and fire departments well-funded and improve transportation mechanisms including roads and expanding the city’s smart transportation options.
Former opponents of both men backed Glaspie in the runoff. He also received endorsements from former Mayor Elzie Odom, former Police Chief Theron Bowman and former Arlington superintendents Jerry McCullough and Mac Bernd. Glaspie, 74, has said his policy priorities include public safety and security through the pandemic and providing resources to first responders, embracing economic, educational and cultural resources to bring in new businesses while growing existing ones, and championing quality education by training students to perform well in the modern age.
Glaspie served three terms as District 8 council member, which represents the city at-large, from 2012 to 2019. He served as school board member for Arlington school district for 17 years and has been a pastoral staff member at Mount Olive Baptist Church for 23 years. Other board experience includes Texas Health Arlington Memorial Hospital Board, North Central Texas Council of Governments, Senior Citizens Services of Tarrant County and Tarrant Appraisal Board.
Ross, who owns Mercury Chophouse and has an eponymous law firm representing the Texas Rangers, has not previously sought public office, but has served on a myriad of boards, including the Greater Arlington Chamber of Commerce, Margarita Society and Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. Ross has also chaired the Arlington Police Foundation Board of Directors.
Ross has been the presumed front-runner, and has far outpaced his competitors in fundraising and spending. Heading into June, he has an easier avenue to winning the runoff, Boyea said.
“There will be plenty of people who do pay attention, but it will be fewer overall,” Boyea said. “That will be a challenge maybe for both candidates, but I think for Glaspie, that will be a little difficult.”
Murphy said he expects Fort Worth voter turnout to increase, as the city decides whether to elect Deborah Peoples as its first Black mayor or Parker as its first millennial mayor. However, he expects turnout to dwindle in Arlington, as the city’s mayoral race has not captured the excitement like its neighbors.
“The high level of competition is not going to be there,” Murphy said. “It’s going to be candidate activity that drives turnout. Even though it’s an easy decision, it’s also an easy decision to go to the beach or all the things that you missed the last year.”
District 3
Southeast Arlington residents will choose a replacement for Sutton, who did not seek a second term representing District 3 so he could run for mayor. Sutton placed third in the race.
Public safety, access to city resources and small business development have taken a center stage in District 3.
Hunter, a 44-year-old longtime Arlington resident, said she entered the race because she did not notice anyone in the four-person race initially emphasizing reducing crime rates as a primary platform. She listed her priorities as keeping property taxes low, repairing streets, funding police and fire departments and supporting small businesses. Hunter received support from Team Tarrant PAC, Arlington Police Association and Arlington Realtors and Arlington Municipal Patrolman’s Association. She also won support from former District 3 council member Roxanne Thalman and former District 5 council member Ignacio Nunez.
Saleh, 32, who has lived in Arlington for a decade, said she filed to be a voice for people who feel unheard and emphasize a community-focused agenda in city hall. She said she has seen the promise the city holds and gained an understanding of areas in need of improvement and greater resources. Her policy priorities include expanding economic opportunities for new entrepreneurs and small and minority-owned businesses, increase transparency, and prioritize community and individual safety. Saleh received endorsements from Sutton, Arlington Professional Firefighters, Run for Something and Muslim Democratic Caucus of Texas.
Boyea said he would think that Hunter would have the advantage in the race based on her age and experience on community boards including the Unity Council, Community Relations Commission and Friends and Foundation of the Arlington Public Library.
“I think they’re probably going to be feeding off some of the same voters, so it might be hard for voters to kind of see the difference, but if voters are looking at experience, I think hunter has a slight advantage,” Boyea said.
This story was originally published May 19, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
