Can TCU advance to the women’s basketball Final Four? Possibly. Here’s the path
The women’s NCAA Tournament field has been set with TCU earning a No. 2 seed in the Birmingham 3 Regional.
One of the hottest teams in the country, the Horned Frogs have the talent to make a run to the Final Four in Tampa.
But March Madness often comes down to matchups and the path teams ,must take. Making it that far is never easy, but TCU must be pleased with its potential path as the Horned Frogs avoided No. 1 overall seed UCLA another regional No. 1 seed South Carolina and No. 2 seed UConn.
Round of 64
The path starts on Friday at 2:30 p.m. CT against No. 15 seed Fairleigh Dickinson which is making its first trip to the NCAA Tournament in program history. The Knights are 28-3, but TCU will be heavy favorite at Schollmaier Arena on Friday. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
Round of 32
The second round will pit the Horned Frogs against No. 7 seed Louisville or No. 10 seed Nebraska. Either matchup could produce interesting story lines as Big 12 Player of the Year Hailey Van Lith could face her former teammates at Louisville.
Van Lith spent three seasons with the Cardinals (21-10) where she became a household name nationally. Van Lith made first-team All-ACC twice while leading Louisville to a Final Four in 2022 and the Elite Eight in 2023.
If it’s the Cornhuskers (21-11), it’ll be a rematch from Mark Campbell’s first season as the Horned Frogs defeated Nebraska 88-81 in the St. Pete showcase. It was Campbell’s first signature win and showed how much progress TCU had already made.
It’ll be a step up in competition, but both teams have struggled against top competition. It would be an upset if TCU didn’t win either matchup and reach Birmingham.
Sweet Sixteen
The Sweet Sixteen matchup will be between No. 3 seed Notre Dame, No. 6 seed Michigan, No. 11 seeds Iowa State or Princeton, and No. 14 seed Stephen F. Austin.
Assuming the top seeds handle business, it’ll likely come down to the Fighting Irish, Wolverines or Cyclones. The Fighting Irish will be a trendy pick after falling to a No. 3 seed line and it would also be a rematch after the Horned Frogs defeated Notre Dame in November.
The Fighting Irish struggled down the stretch, losing three of their last five games including going 0-3 against ranked competition. The Horned Frogs would feel good about their chances of getting another win over Notre Dame.
The Cyclones also shouldn’t be overlooked as their combination of forwards Audi Crooks and Addy Brown could be troublesome for Michigan and Notre Dame.
Elite Eight
The top contenders for a potential Elite Eight opponent include No. 1 seed Texas, No. 4 seed Ohio State, No. 5 seed Tennessee and the winner of No. 8 seed Illinois and No. 9 seed Creighton.
Tennessee appears to be the biggest challenge for the Longhorns on paper after both teams battled through the tough SEC. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes were blown out when they faced elite teams like UCLA and USC, including a 75-46 loss to the Bruins in the Big 10 Tournament.
If it’s the Longhorns vs. the Volunteers in the Sweet 16, that game could be closer than many anticipate. Texas only beat Tennessee by four in Austin earlier this season and there could be a heavy Tennessee presence if the two teams meet in Birmingham.
The Volunteers would be a better Elite Eight matchup for TCU than the Longhorns as Texas has elite size and athleticism. Texas is one of the few teams to have defeated South Carolina this season.
The Longhorns are formidable, but between UCLA, USC and South Carolina, they’re the most ideal matchup for the Horned Frogs if they can make it past the Sweet Sixteen.
With home court advantage in the first and second rounds, plus a favorable Sweet Sixteen matchup, there’s a clear path to the Elite Eight for TCU if the Horned Frogs play up to its standards.
This story was originally published March 16, 2025 at 9:13 PM.
