Three things TCU needs to do to upset Duke in the NCAA Tournament
With No. 1 seed Duke avoiding a historic upset to Siena on Thursday, the stage is now set for a massive showdown between No. 9 seed TCU and the Blue Devils.
The Horned Frogs defeated No. 8 seed Ohio State 66-64 on Thursday in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. TCU and Duke will tip off in the second round at 4:15 p.m. Saturday in Greenville, South Carolina.
The Horned Frogs are aiming to make the program’s first Sweet 16 appearance since the tournament field expanded. TCU made the final eight in 1968, but that NCAA Tournament only had 23 teams.
Meanwhile, Duke is looking to get to the second weekend of the tournament for the third straight season after making the Final Four last year and the Elite Eight in 2024. Duke did fall in the second round in coach Jon Scheyer’s first season in 2023.
The Blue Devils are massive 11.5-point favorites, but a battle-tested TCU team that has already played against the other three No. 1 seeds is capable of pulling off the upset.
Here are three things TCU needs to do to secure a historic win for the program:
Avoid foul trouble
The Horned Frogs’ primary task will be to limit the impact of Duke power forward Cameron Boozer. The ACC Player of the Year is in the running for National Player of the Year and to become the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA draft. The son of former NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer, the freshman is averaging 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists.
However, TCU will have two things working for it when it sees Boozer: sophomore David Punch and junior Xavier Edmonds. The Horned Frogs’ frontcourt members have the exact type of games that can bother Boozer and match his production. Punch is one of the best post defenders in the country, and with Boozer only being listed at 6-foot-9, he won’t be quite as tall as some of the other frontlines TCU has faced.
But for Punch and Edmonds to outduel Boozer, they must remain on the court. Punch missed most of the first half against Ohio State with a foul trouble, while Edmonds dealt with foul trouble against Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals. TCU doesn’t have much depth behind them, and if they’re on the bench, Boozer could feast.
Exploit the missing point guard
Duke suffered a major blow in its regular-season finale when point guard Caleb Foster went down with a season-ending injury in the Blue Devils’ win over North Carolina. The junior excelled in his role as a veteran ball handler alongside Boozer and his twin brother, Cayden.
Since Foster’s injury, the Blue Devils haven’t quite looked like the same machine that mostly rolled through the regular season. Duke was nearly upset by Florida State in the ACC Tournament and went down to the wire with Virginia in the ACC Tournament final.
Foster’s absence was notable on Thursday as Duke trailed by double digits against Siena in the first half before making a push in the second. TCU’s aggressive, blitzing style of defense on ball screens gave Ohio State fits, and the Horned Frogs will need to be even better defensively with their game plan against Duke.
Don’t forget about Isaiah Evans
The Boozer twins attract most of the headlines for obvious reasons, but TCU can’t forget about sophomore guard Isaiah Evans. The 6-6 wing is another potential draft pick and has been the Blue Devils’ primary scoring threat on the perimeter.
Over the past four games, Evans is averaging 18.5 points and 7.0 rebounds, including a 32-point performance against Florida State to avoid the upset. Duke has needed both Evans’ scoring presence and for him to crash the glass, as the Blue Devils have also been without 6-11 center Patrick Ngongba since March 2. Ngnongba averaged 10.7 points and 6.0 rebounds and was the Blue Devils’ best rim protector.
Evans will be the X-factor for Duke, especially if TCU can find a way to minimize Boozer’s impact. Dame Sarr, a 6-8 freshman, is another name to watch, and the Horned Frogs should try to make him beat them from outside. Sarr is just 2-of-17 from 3 since postseason play began.
