How TCU went from the bubble to one of the hottest teams entering March Madness
At the start of February, the thought of TCU men’s basketball reaching the NCAA Tournament felt like a long shot.
The Horned Frogs had just fallen to 3-6 in Big 12 play after being blown out 87-61 by Colorado on the road. But as TCU and coach Jamie Dixon stared down the possibility of missing the tournament for the second straight season, things suddenly began to click for the Horned Frogs.
TCU went from being on the wrong side of the bubble to being a lock for March Madness with a late-season run that saw the Horned Frogs win nine of their final 11 games, including wins over ranked opponents Texas Tech and Iowa State.
Even after falling 78-73 to Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals Thursday, the Horned Frogs will enter the NCAA Tournament with plenty of momentum and a chance to go on a Cinderella run.
After the adversity the Horned Frogs endured this season, the fact that TCU is playing its best basketball at the right time makes this one of Dixon’s best coaching jobs of his tenure in Fort Worth. But if you ask him, it starts with roster he assembled.
“I think good players and just putting them together. And I think we’re young. We’re young and got better as the year went on,” Dixon said. “So probably the youngest — everybody tells us we’re the smallest — I think we’re the youngest in the league or a Power Five. But I mean our practices are really good.
“Our walk-throughs are really good. They giggle a little bit too much for me, but it’s a good thing. But they care. And they believe in each other. And I believe in them.”
That belief was forged through overcoming adversity, and it’s one reason TCU will be dangerous entering the tournament.
Tripping over the first hurdle vs. New Orleans
TCU put itself behind the eight-ball in the season opener when the Horned Frogs were upset 78-74 by New Orleans on Nov. 5. The Pioneers ended up finishing 15-18, tied for fifth in the Southland Conference.
Adding onto the loss was the season-ending injury to starting center Malick Diallo at a position that was already a question mark. A loss like that is one that usually can tank a resume, and the Horned Frogs were already at a crossroads just one game into the season.
“[The emotion] wasn’t great. You start off with a loss you’re not supposed to have as a Power Five team who had big expectations,” junior point guard Brock Harding said. “We started as low as you can. I think at that time, everybody kind of had that vibe that everything was over.”
As bad as the vibes were at the time, TCU didn’t have long to feel sorry for itself, as it faced a gauntlet against Michigan, Florida and Wisconsin in a span of four games. After nearly upsetting Michigan at Schollmaier Arena, the Horned Frogs defeated the Gators and Badgers in back-to-back days during Thanksgiving weekend in the Rady Children’s Invitational.
With those two wins, TCU changed the trajectory of its season and put the loss to New Orleans in the rearview mirror. The Horned Frogs were beginning to find their identity in the wake of Diallo’s injury with the emergence of sophomore forward David Punch and Harding providing direction at point.
“It was really impressive how the coaches and everybody came together and didn’t let that control what the rest of the season was,” Harding said. “We came together and decided that wasn’t going to be the narrative the rest of the year.”
After a loss in overtime to Notre Dame on Dec. 5, TCU reeled off a six-game winning streak that included a victory in the Big 12 opener against rival Baylor.
However, the good vibes established in the non-conference would quickly be tested as the Horned Frogs got deeper into Big 12 play.
Horned Frogs find their identity
TCU got off to a rough start in conference play, falling to 1-4 after grueling stretch that included Kansas, Arizona and BYU. The overtime loss to the Jayhawks was particularly painful, as the Horned Frogs led 81-66 with 5:19 remaining.
Blowing that game in Lawrence was another setback that felt like it could have massive implications for March Madness. The losses continued to stack, as TCU endured a bad defeat at Utah and then was run off the court by Colorado.
But just as the season was looking bleak, the Horned Frogs began to evolve into the best versions of themselves. The first piece was the development of big man Xavier Edmonds.
The former junior college forward/center was thrust into a much bigger role because of Diallo’s injury. He showed flashes during the non-conference schedule, but as TCU continued to battle with Big 12 teams, Edmonds improved rapidly.
Edmonds had 10 double-doubles in the final 13 games and earned a third-team All-Big 12 selection.
“He’s gotten better,” Dixon said at the Big 12 Tournament “It’s an adjustment to go from junior college to the best conference in the country. It took some time, but he’s been progressing.”
Micah Robinson emerges
While Edmonds was elevating his game, Dixon also made a subtle tweak to the starting lineup after the Horned Frogs’ win over Kansas State on Feb. 7. Dixon inserted sophomore forward Micah Robinson into the starting lineup the very next game against Iowa State in place of junior Liutaurus Lelevicius, who started the first 22 games of the season.
It was a gutsy decision that immediately paid off as TCU shocked a top-five Iowa State team and put itself squarely back in the mix for the NCAA Tournament.
With Robinson in the starting five, TCU finished the regular season 7-1, going from on the bubble to a lock for March Madness. Robinson’s presence helped elevate the production of the starting five of Edmonds, Punch, Harding and senior guard Jayden Pierre.
“Micah’s been huge. When he was coming off the bench he was playing the four. He’s kind of undersized for a four,” Edmonds said. “But him just being able to guard fours shows what type of player he is defensively. Now him being able to play the three, he’s able to switch with me and Punch and many of the guards. Micah gives us a lot of versatility when he’s on the floor.”
The prized recruit of the Horned Frogs’ 2024 recruiting class, Robinson has had some of his best moments at TCU since becoming a starter.
He scored 20 points twice and also scored 17 in the win over Iowa State and 15 in the victory at Texas Tech on March 3. His growth has provided stability at the wing position, and he’s made the most of his opportunity.
“It allowed me to be more aggressive on both ends,” Robinson said. “Coming off the bench I had to get a feel for the game, as opposed to starting and I get to kind of enforce what the game is gonna be like.”
Another positive development from that lineup change was the production of Lelevicius, who has arguably been more impactful off the bench.
Lelevicius has scored in double figures of five of TCU’s past seven games, including scoring 14 points and grabbing eight rebounds against Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament. It’s not easy for every player to accept a smaller role, but Lelevicius’ buy-in just shows how tight this group has become.
I feel like through every game our bond has gotten stronger, more unbreakable,” Punch said. “It’s amazing to see. I’ve never really had this type of bond with players like this. And I love it so much. I love these guys, and we’ve built this through every game, through every loss, through every win.”
Even after falling to Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament, TCU will enter the NCAA Tournament having won nine of its last 11 games.
TCU has its flaws. The Horned Frogs are undersized at guard and in the frontcourt, their offense can often be inconsistent with its ability to shoot from outside, and the rotation really goes only about seven deep.
But the Horned Frogs have also identified their strengths, like their scrappy defense that excels at turning people over and their formidable duo inside with Punch and Edmonds, who have outplayed bigger and taller frontcourts.
TCU has found a formula for success that was molded by adversity and agonizing defeats earlier in the season. The Horned Frogs know who they, are and that’s what will make them dangerous in March Madness.
