Why the win over Texas Tech shows how TCU could play Cinderella in March Madness
TCU men’s basketball erased any doubt about its chances of making the NCAA Tournament after upsetting No. 10 Texas Tech 73-65 on Tuesday in Lubbock.
Barring an unforeseen decision by the NCAA Tournament committee, TCU will be back in March Madness after missing it last season.
The fact that the Horned Frogs are in this position is a testament to the coaching job Jamie Dixon has done this season. TCU is an inconsistent, flawed team that is missing its starting center, but Dixon was able to push the right buttons to get the Horned Frogs playing their best basketball at the right time.
Not only has TCU played its way off the bubble, according to ESPN’s latest projections, the program also clinched its first winning season in the Big 12. After TCU lost to New Orleans in the season opener, who truly thought that was a possibility?
Speaking of possibilities, you now have to wonder just how much noise can TCU make in the NCAA Tournament. Winning a game is certainly a possibility, but what about more?
Here are three reasons TCU could be a Cinderella story in March Madness:
Identity established
TCU has flaws, such as a lack of depth in the frontcourt and a lack of size overall, but the Horned Frogs have also found their identity over the past month. That identity is to play through post players Xavier Edmonds and David Punch. Edmonds only stands at 6-foot-8, and Punch is listed at 6-7, but they play much bigger than their height.
Punch has been TCU’s best player most of the year, as he’s turned into a dynamic two-way threat with an expanded offensive game while also being one of the league’s best shot blockers.
But the emergence of Edmonds has been a true game changer.
In 17 conference games, Edmonds has been held to single digits just three times. Edmonds has 10 double-doubles in the past 12 games, including his 20-point, 12-rebound performance against Texas Tech.
Edmonds is a skilled offensive player capable of hitting 3s and putting the ball on the floor, and he’s a matchup problem on the block. Edmonds’ secret weapon is his motor, though. You don’t produce that many double-doubles in the Big 12 without providing elite effort on a nightly basis.
Edmonds and Punch are the go-to options on offense, and having that clear pecking order is one reason TCU played its way off the bubble.
Wing problem solved
Early in the season, TCU wasn’t getting enough production from its wing players, but that’s changed since Dixon inserted Micah Robinson into the starting lineup against Iowa State on Feb. 10. The Horned Frogs are 6-1 since making that change, as Robinson has provided a spark to the offense.
After scoring 15 against Texas Tech, Robinson is now averaging right around 15 points since becoming a starter, with two games scoring 20 points. Robinson provides some much-needed athleticism with the starting lineup of Brock Harding, Jayden Pierre, Punch and Edmonds. He’s a tremendous cutter and helps out on the glass. He’s also shooting 41% from 3 since Feb. 10.
The development of Robinson has been huge for TCU and also for the future of the program, as he’s one of the most decorated recruits to sign with the Horned Frogs.
To his credit, Liutaurus Lelevicius has also embraced his role off the bench and has played well. Before Tuesday, he scored in double figures in three straight games, which he did only once as a starter. Even with being held to six points against Texas Tech, Lelevicius hit the 3 to give TCU a late nine-point lead.
Both players will be essential in March Madness, along with fellow reserve Tanner Toolson.
Scrappy Frogs
TCU knows it’s undersized, but one way the Horned Frogs have overcome that is with their defensive approach. The Horned Frogs have thrived on ball pressure and creating turnovers, which has helped negate the lack of size in the post during this recent stretch.
The Horned Frogs rank 59th nationally in steals per game with 8, and their opponents are averaging 14 turnovers per game, which is top-50 nationally. When you don’t have size and your shooting from 3 is inconsistent, you have to be able to steal possessions, and the Horned Frogs have done that by forcing turnovers.
That has been on full display against some of the nation’s best teams. In the five games against Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa State and Texas Tech, TCU averaged 10.3 steals and 6.3 blocks and generated 19.8 points off turnovers while also forcing opponents to turn it over on nearly 23% of their possessions.
When TCU is locked in defensively, it can make life hard on any offense. The Red Raiders had 15 turnovers Tuesday, including six from potential first-round NBA draft pick Christian Anderson Jr.
The Horned Frogs’ defensive style is one that few teams would like to see in the NCAA Tournament, and it’s just another reason TCU could end up being a bracket buster.
This story was originally published March 5, 2026 at 5:30 AM.
