Can TCU women make the Final Four? Here’s what some experts think
There’s no doubt TCU women’s basketball is among the best in the country, but what is the Horned Frogs’ ceiling? Can they reach the program’s first Final Four?
The Horned Frogs (29-5) shocked the country by making a run last season to the Elite Eight, where they were defeated by Texas.
Many of the key pieces departed for the WNBA or graduated, but head coach Mark Campbell was successful in rebuilding a roster led by Olivia Miles and Marta Suarez that captured another regular-season Big 12 title and reached the championship game of the Big 12 Tournament.
TCU is projected to receive a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament and might not have to leave Fort Worth to reach the Final Four. As a top-16 seed, the Horned Frogs will host the first two rounds at Schollmaier Arena for the second straight season, and they could play Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games in the Fort Worth regional at Dickies Arena.
The Star-Telegram reached out to women’s basketball analysts Talia Goodman from On3, Rachel Galligan of the Big 12 and ESPN’s Christy Thomaskutty to get a national viewpoint of TCU’s chances in March Madness.
Here’s why they say TCU is capable of making another deep run:
How TCU stacks up to last year’s team
Goodman: “It’s insane what [Campbell] has been able to do, and I thought the same thing last year, and even his first year with all the injuries. The talent he’s been able to get out of the transfer portal is pretty much unmatched. Olivia Miles was the key. Being able to get her, have someone of her caliber who is a WNBA-ready point guard leading the charge on this team. [Her impact] has been evident in the results this year.
“I think this year’s TCU team is better, I do. I think the [Big 12] is tougher, which is why we’ve seen more parity and a couple of those close losses that they had.”
Galligan: “I think that this year’s team has always had the potential to exceed last year’s team. That’s hard to say right now when they lost the [Big 12] tournament championship, but at the same time, Mark Campbell would even say it’s so hard to win these things. This team has been the No. 1 team all season long, and there’s a reason they were the regular-season champs. There’s a reason they had a target on their back. The biggest difference in my mind is this year has a little more depth. You don’t quite have a Madison Conner [a guard on last year’s team], but you have what she brings to the table divvied up between a few other players. I love their size, and I feel like they have more length that is disruptive.”
Thomaskutty: “When you get into the analytics, they’re playing faster, and I think that’s Olivia. It’s just a different style between Olivia and [departed guard Hailey Van Lith]. ... I think from a roster perspective Mark can play this roster with so much more diversity because of Marta’s skill set. She can literally play or defend any position on the court. I think this team in a lot of ways is better because of that diversity of skill set, and that’s really about Marta.”
How far can TCU go in March Madness?
Goodman: “In terms of overall talent ... I think this team has the potential to go even further than last year.”
Galligan: “I really do believe this team has Final Four potential. That turning point, playing Colorado [an 80-79 loss Feb. 8], I think this team has taken it to another level that we hadn’t seen earlier in the season.”
Thomaskutty: “I don’t like to answer the question ... without knowing the draw. I am a firm believer that matchups matter. ... If they’re not in the second weekend, I would be disappointed, though.”
What is the biggest question mark about TCU?
Goodman: “I think it’s still depth. I think they have more than some other teams that are in that tier with them, but the teams that are gonna go far like UConn, UCLA, they have a ton of first-round draft picks on their team, and they have depth under them, too. So depth is the thing I would look out for on TCU.”
Galligan: “Foul trouble. You can’t have Miles and Suarez on the bench. ... They’ve got to stay on the court. You can’t be in foul trouble early in the game. That’s just gonna put too much on other players that aren’t used to having to play that role. You can’t turn the ball over. At times earlier on in the season, they have turned the ball over a little too much. Not just Miles, but collectively as a group.”
Thomaskutty: “I think the Achilles’ heel is the turnovers, unforced turnovers by Olivia. The other thing is the foul issue, and specifically with Marta. In their wins, Marta is averaging about 2.5 fouls, and in their losses, it’s almost 4.5. It’s a big thing. This offense went through three players, and now it’s really the two of them. I’m not saying the others aren’t important because I’m a big Donovyn Hunter fan, but if [Miles and Suarez] don’t get their double digits, it could be a problem.”
Can TCU match up with the elite SEC teams?
Goodman: “I think they’ve closed the gap, but there’s really nothing comparable to the physicality of SEC basketball. You’re not playing that type of basketball; you don’t really have to in the Big 12. I think TCU’s gotten scrappier, I think they’re better defensively, but I still think there’s a gap in the physicality — no matter what league you’re in when you’re comparing it to the SEC.”
Galligan: “They have a generational playmaker in Olivia, and I think Suarez has to be on, Miles has to be on. When those two are clicking, I really do believe they can be a Final Four team.”
Thomaskutty: “I watch a lot of the SEC, and if we’re talking about Texas and South Carolina, the quality of depth stands out. The quality of depth means a greater margin of error. In my mind, if Olivia goes to the bench, does it hurt like [South Carolina guard] Raven Johnson going to the bench? So has the gap, because of quality of talent, shrunk? I believe so. But I still think there needs to be greater depth.”
