Which games will make or break TCU football’s 2025 season?
Less than two months remain before the beginning of a pivotal season for TCU football coach Sonny Dykes and the Horned Frogs.
It’s been a bit of a roller coaster tenure for Dykes with TCU reaching the national championship game in year one to failing to make a bowl in year two only to bounce back with a 9-4 season last season.
After winning six of their final seven games to close out 2024, the Horned Frogs are expecting to contend for a Big 12 title and a college football playoff berth, but TCU’s schedule is brutal.
The Horned Frogs will face two playoff teams, the Big 12 runner-up from last season and another in conference foe that won 10 games last year. It’s a daunting challenge, but TCU has the pieces to compete.
Each game is important, but these five will ultimately determine whether or not the Horned Frogs are playoff contenders:
Week 4: vs. SMU, Sept. 20
Breakdown: The Mustangs embarrassed Dykes and the Horned Frogs last year in Highland Park in an ugly 66-42 defeat that helped propel SMU to the ACC title game and a playoff appearance. Not only will TCU desire payback, but this is also the last scheduled Iron Skillet rivalry game for the near future unless TCU athletic director Mike Buddie is open to renewing the rivalry.
SMU should be a top-25 opponent and a win over the Mustangs would bolster TCU’s CFP resume. The Horned Frogs have been D-FW’s top program for quite some time and the program won’t want to allow SMU to gather more momentum with the area’s top recruits.
Week 5: at Arizona State, Sept. 26, 8 p.m.
Breakdown: The schedule makers did TCU no favors as the Horned Frogs will have a short week following their rivalry game against the defending Big 12 champions. The Sun Devils will be without star running back Cam Skattebo, but return quarterback Sam Leavitt, star receiver Jordan Tyson and many of their defensive leaders. The Sun Devils will be aiming to prove last year wasn’t a fluke and all eyes should be on this Friday night matchup.
The Horned Frogs would send a message by winning in Tempe.
Week 7: at Kansas State, Oct. 11
Breakdown: TCU faces Deion Sanders and Colorado the week before and there will be plenty of fans wanting to avenge the season opening loss to Coach Prime and the Buffs from 2023. However, Colorado has a plethora of question marks without Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders. Kansas State on the other hand is expected to contend.
This game in Manhattan will be a more important one. The Wildcats are expected to be contenders once again led by Avery Johnson and the Horned Frogs lost by 37 points in 2023 their last game at Kansas State. TCU is just 3-6 in Manhattan and hasn’t won a game there since 2017.
Week 8: vs. Baylor, Oct. 18
Breakdown: With no Texas Tech on the schedule, the rivalry game against the Bears is even more important this year. The Bears defeated TCU in a thriller in Waco last season on a last second field goal, breaking TCU’s four-game winning streak in the rivalry. With Sawyer Robertson and Bryson Washington back, the Bears are expecting to make their own push to the Big 12 title game. Both teams ended last season on hot streaks, who will be able to carry that momentum into 2025?
Week 10: vs. Iowa State, Nov. 8
Breakdown: The Cyclones came up short in the Big 12 title game against the Sun Devils, but return plenty of talent from last year’s team including quarterback Rocco Becht and arguably the best secondary in the league. Recent history hasn’t been kind to TCU in this matchup with the Cyclones taking four of the last five, but historically the Horned Frogs have had success against Iowa State at Amon G. Carter Stadium, including a 6-2 home record overall.
Depending on how TCU has managed its previous big games, this could easily be an elimination game for both the CFP and the Big 12 title race.
Honorable mentions
At North Carolina, Week 1, Sept. 1, 7 p.m. and at BYU, Week 11, Nov. 15: Both of these games could’ve made the list, especially the UNC matchup on Labor Day. It’ll be the first game of the Bill Belichick era and a standalone primetime game for TCU, who could quickly take over some national discussion with a strong performance. There’s just no way of telling how good the Tar Heels will be ahead of the matchup.
Meanwhile, BYU won 11 games last year, but their starting quarterback Jake Retzlaff will reportedly enter the transfer portal after being sued for an alleged sexual assault in 2023. The case was dropped, but Retzlaff still faced a lengthy suspension due to violating BYU’s honor code, leading him to consider entering the portal. Retzlaff’s eventual departure could shake up the entire league.
