Can No. 17 TCU slow down No. 14 Baylor’s high-powered offense?
No. 17 TCU is hoping to avoid a three-game skid, but that could be difficult against a hot Baylor team.
The No. 14 Bears started Big 12 play 0-3, but have won eight of their last nine games. TCU is one of just two teams to beat Baylor in 2023, but the Horned Frogs needed a career-high 33 points from Mike Miles Jr. to escape Waco with a 88-87 win.
TCU had to overcome a 17-point deficit to stun Baylor on the road on Jan. 4. Completing the season sweep of the Bears would be massive for the Horned Frogs, especially if they do it without Miles.
His injury status remains uncertain for Saturday’s Top-25 showdown. Miles, who injured his knee Jan. 28 at Mississippi State, was a limited participant in practice on Friday and did on court drills on Thursday. Whether or not he plays will have a huge impact on the final outcome.
Here are three more things to watch:
Explosive offense
Baylor has one of the most prolific offenses in the country and according to KenPom, the Bears have the best offense in the country with an 121.9 adjusted efficiency rating and a unit that averages 79 points per game. The 87 points Baylor scored against TCU earlier this season is the most the Horned Frogs have allowed all season.
The Bears are lethal from 3-point range and are Top-35 in 3-point makes and attempts. The Bears share the ball extremely well with over 15 assists per game. Senior guard Adam Flagler is the lead conductor with a team-high 4.9 assists and 15.4 points. Junior guard LJ Cryer is another double-digit scorer averaging 14.0 points a night.
Simply put, Baylor does almost everything well offensively. The Bears are one of the national leaders in free throw attempts and makes along with offensive rebounding. Baylor wants this to become a shootout, but TCU won’t have the firepower to match if Miles isn’t available.
Lottery pick
Flagler and Cryer are very good, but Baylor’s biggest star is five-star freshman Keyonte George, who could be a lottery pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. George leads the Bears with 17.5 points per game and isn’t just a scorer. He’s a factor on the glass and also averages three assists per game.
George has scored 20 or more points 10 times this season, the most for a Baylor freshman in two decades. Standing at 6-foot-4, 185 pounds George is the prototypical two-guard who likes to attack from deep. George averages over seven 3-point attempts per contest and hits almost three a night.
George had 27 points in 27 minutes the first contest and with potentially no Miles to guard or outduel him, George could end up being the difference.
Exploitable defense?
As elite as Baylor is offensively, the same can’t be said for the team’s defensive ability. Baylor allows almost 70 points per game, which is firmly middle of the pack nationally while their field goal defense has left much to be desired. Opponents are shooting 45% against the Bears, which is only 253rd in the nation.
Baylor doesn’t have intimidating size as their best big man Jalen Bridges is only 6-foot-7 and more of a stretch forward than a traditional power forward or center. Baylor averages less than three blocks per game which is far from intimidating and means a slasher like Damion Baugh could thrive once he gets into the paint.
It’s also a game Eddie Lampkin Jr. can control if he’s close to 100%. Lampkin had 15 points and nine rebounds in the win in Waco, but he still appeared to dealing with pain in his ankle when he returned to the starting lineup against Kansas State Tuesday. Lampkin wasn’t able to be effective against Kansas State and wasn’t a participant in practice Friday.
Lampkin could still try and give it a go on Saturday, how effective he can be will something to monitor.
This story was originally published February 10, 2023 at 12:11 PM.
