Steven Johnson: The losses may keep coming for No. 17 TCU, but don’t panic
How quickly a season can change.
Just a few weeks ago, TCU seemed destined to be on the verge of cracking the Top 10 of the Associated Press poll after rolling Kansas and Oklahoma in back-to-back games. But then Mike Miles Jr. went down with an injury to Mississippi State on Jan. 28 and things have changed drastically.
Now, the Horned Frogs may be lucky to be in next week’s Top 25 after dropping their second game in a row in a 82-61 defeat at No. 12 Kansas State on Tuesday.
The game was much closer than the final score indicated, but that’s besides the point. The Horned Frogs are trying to overcome unlucky timing with the Miles injury.
It’s never ideal to lose your best player, let alone in the middle of maybe the toughest stretch by any team in the country. After Miles went down against Mississippi State, the Horned Frogs faced two potential NCAA Tournament teams in West Virginia and Oklahoma State.
Now after the loss to the Wildcats, TCU has two more ranked matchups vs. No. 14 Baylor on Saturday and then at No. 11 Iowa State on Feb. 15.
If Miles misses both games, the losses could keep coming for TCU. But it’s important to not lose focus on the true goal: playing your best in March.
The Horned Frogs are firmly in the NCAA Tournament and currently projected as a No. 4 or No. 5 seed. Their spot in the Big Dance is secure and the Big 12 will still present plenty of opportunities for more quality wins down the road when Miles returns, which could be as early as Iowa State.
In a year where there is no great team (sorry Purdue), the difference between a No. 4 or 7 seed is smaller than ever. Kansas is a projected 2 seed, Baylor and Kansas State could be 3 seeds. All of those are teams that the Frogs have beaten when healthy.
In the meantime, the Horned Frogs will truly get to know more about the pieces on the roster. There have been some good signs including the emergence of JaKobe Coles, who has scored in double figures in four straight games.
Shahada Wells is another piece off the bench that scored in double figures in three straight games before Kansas State. Those revelations will be crucial for TCU when the Big 12 and NCAA Tournament rolls around, but TCU is just 1-3 since Miles’ injury.
There’s no need to panic, but there are plenty of things that have nothing to do with Miles’ absence that need to be corrected when he returns to the lineup.
“I’m concerned that we lost, I’m concerned that we had 19 turnovers, that we got outrebounded by 12,” coach Jamie Dixon said. “I’m concerned about a lot of things.”
Miles’ return should help with the turnover problem as TCU has averaged 17 turnovers per game in their last two outing. It should also help an offense that often struggles in the half court. Miles has a complete scoring package with range to hit 3-pointers and handles that allow him get into the paint.
When he does get to the basket he has the strength and athleticism to finish consistently. When he’s not scoring, the attention he creates opens up more room for others. That’s huge for a team that struggles to shoot from 3-point range like TCU does.
Rebounding will be more on Eddie Lampkin Jr. who returned to the starting lineup on Tuesday night, but was still clearly not close to his usual self. Without their leading scorer and with their leading rebounder closer to 60% than 100% the struggles the team is currently enduring and could continue over the next week are understandable.
But that context is why Dixon and the rest of the program aren’t close to pushing the panic button.
“But we played a good team on the road that we had beaten and they responded,” Dixon said. “We’ve got to get two practices and get better and get guys in more familiar positions.”
More is being asked of players like Coles, Wells, Xavier Cork and Rondel Walker. It may be uncomfortable now, but when the rotation is back to its normal order this experience should help the role players and even starters like Damion Baugh, who has played an average of 39 minutes since Miles got hurt.
Even with Baugh having less wear and tear due to his six-game suspension earlier in the year, that’s still a heavy physical load on a slashing guard like Baugh.
But that should change soon, especially if Miles is back next week. When healthy we know what TCU is fully capable of.
“Watching Kansas hold serve against Texas and Kansas State in the last six days at Allen Fieldhouse reiterates one thing,” college basketball insider Jon Rothstein said on Monday. “Peak TCU is the best team in the Big 12.”
Iowa State and Texas may disagree, but make no mistake TCU has shown it’s one of the best teams in the country when Miles and Lampkin are healthy.
So maybe a regular season Big 12 title might be out of reach by the time those two are close to 100%, but keep your eye on the prize.
Whether or not TCU lives up to the historic hype that proceeded the season will be decided in March, not in early February.
This story was originally published February 8, 2023 at 4:00 PM.
