How TCU upset Michigan 51-45 in Fiesta Bowl to advance to CFP finals

Star-Telegram sports editor Dave Ammenheuser chronicles the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl in this special College Football Playoff semifinal blog, featuring highlights, photos, video replays, key stats, commentary and more.

TCU beat Michigan 51-45 to advance to the national championship game against defending champion Georgia.

All notes are in reverse chronological order of the game.

Final statistics

Michigan held a 527-488 edge in total yards, 25-19 in first downs, 32:25-27:35 in time of possession.

TCU QB Max Duggan was 14 of 29 for 225 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INT; he rushed 15 times for 57 yards and 2 TDs

TCU’s Emari Demercado rushed 17 times for 150 yards and a TD; Kendre Miller had 8 rushes for 57 yards before going out with an injury.

J.J. McCarthy completed 20 of 34 passes for 343 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INT for Michigan; he also rushed 10 times for 52 yards and a TD

Donovan Edwards rushed 23 times for 119 yards to lead Michigan’s ground game.

TCU receiver Quentin Johnston had six catches for 163 yards and a TD; Ronnie Bell had 6 catches for 135 yards and a TD to lead Michigan. Roman Wilson had 5 catches for 104 yards and a TD for Wolverines.

Play-by-play (reverse chronological order)

Fourth quarter

TCU 16th possession: Horned Frogs’ Max Duggan kneels. Game over. TCU marches onto the championship game.

MICH 18th possession starts at MICH 25: First down, J.J. McCarthy runs for 5 and out of bounds. Second-and-5, McCarthy pass incomplete. Third-and-5 with 39 seconds left, false start penalty. Third-and-10 with 39 seconds left, pass knocked down by TCU defense; Fourth-and-10 with 35 seconds left, Michigan fumbles the snap. After a series of laterals, play appears to be over. After a review for possible targeting, the ball goes over to TCU.

TCU 15th possession starts at TCU 10: Horned Frogs pick up first down at TCU 21. Timeout Michigan (1) with 1:08 left. On second-and-eight, Max Duggan runs for 4. Timeout Michigan (2) with 1:04 left. Third-and-4. Duggan pass to Quentin Johnston for 3 yards. Timeout Michigan (3) with 59 seconds left. Fourth-and-1 at TCU 30. Delay of game penalty moves ball to TCU 25. Horned Frogs punt to MICH 25. 52 seconds left.

Highest scoring Fiesta Bowl ever. Wolverines still have all three of their timeouts; TCU has just one. Will Horned Frogs be conservative?

MICH 17th possession starts at MICH 44: Wolverines plow down the field, scoring on a J.J. McCarthy to Roman Wilson 5-yard touchdown pass. Jake Moody’s extra point pulls the Wolverines within 51-45 with 3:18 left.

TCU 14th possession starts at TCU 10: The Horned Frogs go three-and-out (what happened to all of the offensive fireworks?). Punt to MICH 44 with 6:46 to go.

MICH 16th possession starts at MICH 25: Wolverines go three-and-out, punt ball away to the TCU 10. 8:50 left.

TCU’s 51 points is most they’ve ever scored in a bowl game. Michigan was only allowing 13 points per game this season, the best in the country.

TCU 13th possession starts at MICH 16: Despite the great field position, the Horned Frogs don’t move ball much. Griffin Kell kicks 31-yard field goal to increase TCU lead to 51-38 with 10:02 left.

MICH 15th possession starts at MICH 13: Wolverines go nowhere as TCU forces a punt from the end zone. Derius Davis returns the punt for 31 yards to give TCU a first down at the MICH 16 with 12:09 left.

TCU 12th possession starts at TCU 21: Wow. TCU gets back on the scoreboard as Max Duggan and Quentin Johnston connect on a 76-yard touchdown pass (it appeared that Duggan was going to get sacked on long third down). Griffin Kell kicks the point-after attempt and TCU leads 48-38 with 13:07 left.

MICH 14th possession starts at TCU 27: Michigan quickly gets on the scoreboard, taking advantage of the turnover. Roman Wilson scores on an 18-yard run. J.J. McCarthy then completes a two-point conversion pass to Ronnie Bell to cut TCU’s lead to 41-38 with 14:13 left.

Third quarter notes

TCU 11th possession starts at TCU 25: On first play of the series and the final play of the third quarter, Emari Demercado fumbles and it is recovered by Michigan at the TCU 27.

MICH 13th possession starts at MICH 25: This game is crazy. Wolverines aren’t dead yet. They quickly move down the field. J.J. McCarthy connects with Ronnie Bell again, this time for a 44-yard pass to give the Wolverines a first-and-goal. Kalel Mullings then scores on a 1-yard run. J.J. McCarthy then runs for the two-point conversion. TCU leads 41-30 with 3 seconds left in the third quarter.

TCU 10th possession starts at TCU 22: The Horned Frogs, behind running back Emari Demercado, quickly get down the field and score again. Demercado runs for 8, then 69 yards to get ball to MICH 1. Max Duggan then scores from the 1. Griffin Kell’s extra point gives TCU a 41-22 lead with 49 seconds left.

MICH 12th possession starts at MICH 25: Quarterback J.J. McCarthy takes over this series, running 39 yards to the TCU 20, then running 20 yards for the touchdown. He’s stopped on the two-point conversion run, but the Wolverines have cut the TCU lead to 34-22 with 1:47 left in the third quarter.

Are the Wolverines headed to their sixth straight bowl loss?

MICH 11th possession starts at MICH 22: On third play of the series, TCU’s Dee Winters picks off J.J. McCarthy and returns it 29 yards for a TCU touchdown. Trouble with the hold on the extra point, but TCU leads 34-16 with 2:52 remaining. That’s the second pick-6 of the game. Wow, wow. Who would’ve predicted this?

TCU 9th possession starts at TCU 25: Horned Frogs immediately get into Michigan territory, connecting on a 46-yard pass play from Max Duggan to Quentin Johnston on the first play. From there, Emari Demercado runs five straight times, the last a 1-yard run for the touchdown. Griffin Kell’s extra point gives TCU a 28-16 lead with 4:25 left. What a response! 6 plays, 75 yards in just 2:07.

MICH 10th possession starts at TCU 45: Michigan gets back into the game quickly. On third play of the series, Wolverines use a flea-flicker, scoring on a 34-yard pass play from J.J. McCarthy to Ronnie Bell for the touchdown. Moody’s extra point pulls Wolverines within 21-16 with 6:32 left.

TCU 8th possession starts at TCU 25: Horned Frogs move to the TCU 36 where Max Duggan’s third-down pass is intercepted (his second of the game; after just four all season). Pass ricocheted off of Derrius Davis and is picked off by Mike Sainristil and returned to TCU 45.

MICH 9th possession starts at MICH 33: Wolverines get on the scoreboard quickly, on a 21-yard Jake Moody field goal. Big play in the drive was a 43-yard pass from J.J. McCarthy to Ronnie Bell to the TCU 6. But the Horned Frogs defense stopped the Wolverines on three straight plays, forcing the field goal. TCU leads 21-9 with 9:29 left in the third quarter.

TCU 7th possession starts at TCU 25: After Max Duggan gains 14 yards on first play of the half, Horned Frogs don’t move much further. Punt to Michigan, plus punt returner interference gives Michigan ball at MICH 33.

Halftime stats to know

▪ Michigan has a 221-202 edge in total yardage

▪ TCU has a 113-73 edge in rushing and 54 of Michigan’s game on the game’s first play (run by Donovan Edwards)

▪ Max Duggan is 7 of 16 for 89 yards and a TD and a INT; J.J. Mccarthy is 10 of 16 for 148 yards and a INT

▪ Kendre Miller leads the Horned Frogs with 56 rushing yards, but left the game in the second quarter with ankle injury.

▪ Donovan Edwards has 90 rushing yards on 14 carries for the Wolverines (54 on first play; 13 for 36 on rest)

▪ Michigan was held without a touchdown in the first half for the first time this season

▪ The Wolverines were within the 5-yard line twice and failed to score (turnover on downs, fumble)

▪ Bud Clark has an interception (returned for a TD) and a fumble recovery

Second quarter notes

MICH 8th possession starts at MICH 32: Wolverines move ball to the TCU 41 (aided by pass interference penalty). On final play of the half, Jake Moody kicks a school-record 59-yard field goal. TCU leads 21-6 at halftime. Admit it, not many of you thought that margin was possible.

TCU 6th possession starts at TCU 15: Horned Frogs move the ball to the TCU 38 before Duggan is sacked on third down. Punt ball to Michigan at MICH 32. 47 seconds left in the half.

MICH 7th possession starts at MICH 25: Wolverines pick up a couple of first downs (one on a QB roughing penalty), but drive stalls at the TCU 49. Punt to TCU 15. 1:33 left in the half.

TCU 5th possession starts at TCU 17: The Horned Frogs put together another long drive, capped by 6-yard pass from Max Duggan to Taye Barber. Griffin Kell’s extra point gives Horned Frogs a 21-3 lead with 4:56 left in the half. Drive was sparked by a couple of Max Duggan runs and a 32-yard reception by Quentin Johnston.

MICH 6th possession starts at MICH 26: Wolverines move to MICH 45 where drive stalls. Punt to TCU 17. 9:20 left in the half.

TCU 4th possession starts at TCU 20: After Kendre Miller gains 13 on first down, TCU drive stalls at TCU 39. 51-yard punt to Michigan. With 11:35 left in the half. (Miller has 44 yards on five carries; Duggan is 4 of 10 for 38 yards).

MICH 5th possession starts at MICH 49: On first play, JJ McCarthy connects with Roman Wilson on 50-yard pass to the TCU 1-half yard line. On next play, the Wolverines fumble at the goal line. Ball is recovered by TCU’s Bud Clark in the end zone. Big play for the TCU defense.

TCU 3rd possession starts at TCU 27: Max Duggan’s pass is intercepted (just his fifth of the season) by Rod Moore at the Mich 49.

Michigan fourth possession continues: Second down at TCU 24. Two running plays go nowhere. Jake Moody boots a 42-yard field goal to pull Michigan within 14-3 with 13:46 left in half.

First quarter notes

Michigan fourth possession starts at MICH 25: Wolverines move into TCU territory (biggest play a 32-yard pass play to Luke Schoonmaker). Quarter ends with Michigan on 2nd-and-5 at TCU 24

Michigan’s 14-0 deficit is its biggest deficit of the season!

TCU second possession starts at TCU 24. Horned Frogs march down the field and get on the scoreboard again, capped by a Max Duggan 1-yard touchdown run. Big runs in the drive by Kendre Miller and Duggan. Griffin Kell’s extra point gives TCU a 14-0 lead with 2:27 left in the quarter. Surprise, surprise. Hmmmm.

MICH third possession starts at MICH 25: Michigan goes three-and-out and punt to TCU 24. 7:46 left.

MICH second possession starts at MICH 34: On first play, Bud Clark intercepts JJ McCarthy and returns ball 39 yards for a TCU touchdown. That’s his fifth interception of the year. And just the fourth interception of the year by McCarthy. Griffin Kell’s extra point gives Horned Frogs a 7-0 lead with 9:22 left in the quarter.

TCU first possession starts at TCU 10. Horned Frogs go three-and-out. Two incomplete passes, a Kendre Miller 8-yard run. TCU punts ball back to MICH 34. 9:31 left.

MICH first possession starts at MICH 25: On first play, Donovan Edwards runs for 53 yards. Six plays later, the Wolverines face a fourth-and-goal at the TCU 2. Timeout Michigan. Wolverines try a trick play, but TCU isn’t fooled. Dylan Horton stops the Wolverines on a loss at the TCU 10.

Scoring plays

FIRST QUARTER

TCU: Bud Clark, 41-yard interception return (Griffin Kell kick). 9:22. TCU leads 7-0

TCU: Max Duggan, 1-yard run (Griffin Kell kick). 2:27. TCU leads 14-0

SECOND QUARTER

MICH: Jake Moody, 42-yard field goal. 13:46. TCU leads 14-3

TCU: Taye Barber, 6-yard pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell kick). 4:56. TCU leads 21-3

MICH: Jake Moody, 59-yard field goal. 0:00. TCU leads 21-6

THIRD QUARTER

MICH: Jake Moody, 21-yard field goal. 9:29. TCU leads 21-9

TCU: Emari Demercado, 1-yard run (Griffin Kell kick). 4:25 TCU leads 28-16

TCU: Dee Winters, 29-yard interception return (two-point conversion fails). 2:52, TCU leads 34-16

MICH: J.J. McCarthy, 20-yard run (two-point conversion failed). 1:47. TCU leads 34-22

TCU: Max Duggan, 1-yard run (Griffin Kell kick). 0:49. TCU leads 41-22

MICH: Kalel Mullings, 1-yard run (J.J. McCarthy run). 0:03. TCU leads 41-30

FOURTH QUARTER

MICH: Roman WIlson, 18-yard run (J.J. McCarthy pass to Ronnie Bell). 14:13. TCU lads 41-38

TCU: Quentin Johnston, 76-yard pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell kick). 13:07. TCU leads 48-38

TCU: Griffin Kell, 33-yard field goal. 10:02. TCU leads 51-38

MICH: Roman Wilson, 5-yard pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody kick). 3:18. TCU leads 51-45

Coin flip

TCU wins toss. Defers to second half. Michigan receives opening kick.

Uniforms

TCU wearing all white with purple trim; Michigan wearing dark blue tops and gold pants.

National anthem

Performed by Boyz II Men. Nice job. :)

The long shot

TCU was a 200-to-1 shot to make the College Football Playoff when the season began. That’s the highest odds in the four-team college football era. The second longest? Michigan last season when the Wolverines were 100-to-1.

So if a TCU student had put $100 on the Horned Frogs in August, they’d have $20,000 today.

Pregame reads

Steven Johnson: Three reasons why TCU will win or lose

Kendre Miller could be the X-factor in today’s game

What are the gifts that TCU players received for playing in the game?

Does Max Duggan belong on the Mount Rushmore of TCU football?

College football playoff history doesn’t favor Horned Frogs

Week 1 starting QB Chandler Morris plans to reclaim job in 2023

Expert picks: Michigan or TCU in Fiesta Bowl?

TCU will honor Mike Leach during the Fiesta Bowl

This story was originally published December 31, 2022 at 1:30 PM.