Fiesta Bowl expert picks: What’s the pick? TCU or Michigan?
Michigan opened as a 9.5-point favorite to beat TCU in the Fiesta Bowl, the national semifinal scheduled on Dec. 31 in Phoenix. The line has dropped to 7.5 in recent days.
With the big line, who do the pundits think will win the game? It’s not good news for Horned Frog fans.
▪ Bill Bender, The Sporting News
The line has dropped a point from its opening. The Horned Frogs won outright as underdogs against Oklahoma and Texas this season. TCU allowed an average of 218.5 yards rushing to Baylor and then against Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game. Michigan has a better rushing attack then both. Max Duggan will keep the Horned Frogs in this game, but J.J. McCarthy will also have success in the air. Jim Harbaugh gets his national championship shot with the Wolverines.
Prediction: Michigan 34-23
▪ Larry Rupp, FanDuel
TCU showed its weaknesses in the Big 12 Championship and Michigan should control this contest throughout.
Prediction: Michigan 35, TCU 23
▪ Adam Rittenberg, ESPN
The Hypnotoads make their customary second-half push, but Michigan is a second-half team, too, and playing with too much confidence on both sides of the ball. The Wolverines get key contributions from their young, celebrated recruits like McCarthy, running back Donovan Edwards and cornerback Will Johnson and march on to the natty.
Prediction: Michigan 38, TCU 31
▪ Dan Kilbridge, Bookies.com
Our No. 1 concern with the Horned Frogs in this matchup is rushing defense. Opponents have averaged at least 4.7 yards per carry in four of the last five games and both Baylor and Kansas State rushed for 200-plus. That’s a big problem against these Wolverines, who have surpassed 200 rushing yards in nine of 13 games.
Pick: Michigan -8
▪ Lance Patton, The Game Day
Michigan rode a physical run game and the big offensive line to the College Football Playoff, and they’ll establish the run and lean on the TCU defense early in this one. Michigan averaged 243 rushing yards per game this season but will be missing a key cog with Blake Corum. Corum rushed for 1,463 yards and 18 touchdowns this season, but it will be back up Donovan Edwards expected to lead the backfield. Edwards had 218 yards and two touchdown runs of 75-plus yards against Ohio State, then 185 yards and a score in the Big Ten Championship.
Although the loss of Corum is significant, the Wolverines’ offensive line should be able to keep the offense moving and Edwards is a capable backup.
Prediction: Michigan 38, TCU 27
▪ Pete Fuitak, College Football News
The body blows will add up, Michigan’s running game will find the holes to be wider and wider, and the big gashes will come in an avalanche of points.
It’s a College Football Playoff semifinal. It’s probably going to suck.
Prediction: Michigan 38, TCU 14
▪ Dan Weiner, BetSperts
TCU have put together a 9-3-1 record against the spread this season. In games it has played as 7.5-point underdogs or more, TCU has a perfect ATS record of 1-0. TCU’s games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under seven times this season. This season, the Horned Frogs have been the underdog three times and won two of those games.
Pick: TCU -7.5
▪ Picks and Parlays.com
Michigan has been the second-best team in the country all year and will continue to roll against TCU. TCU had too many issues with Kansas State and will struggle immensely against Michigan. Look from Michigan to control this game from the opening minutes as they coast to an easy win and cover to punch their ticket to the national championship Final Score Prediction, Michigan Wolverines win and cover 45-17.
Prediction: Michigan, 45-17
▪ Tony Garcia, Detroit Free Press
J.J. McCarthy has seven touchdowns in the past two games and is playing his best ball of the year. Donovan Edwards has run for 401 yards and three scores in his two games as a starter. The defense has allowed just one of the last eight teams to score a touchdown in the second half. TCU quarterback Max Duggan is a warrior and easy to root for, but this will likely follow a similar formula — close early, before the Wolverines impose their will on the ground and advance to the national championship game.
Prediction: Michigan 38, TCU 23.
▪ Rainer Sabin, Detroit Free Press
Jim Harbaugh storybook revival continues in the Arizona desert, where he leads the Wolverines to the doorstep of a national championship. Against the Horned Frogs, Michigan uses its brawn to power its way to its 14th victory and set the stage for a Hollywood ending in Los Angeles.
Prediction: Michigan 37, TCU 24.
▪ Bryan Clinton, Heartland College Sports
This game is going to be close. In fact, I believe this will be the best pair of college football playoff games that we have had since the system was implemented. Most year’s we see one game become extremely lopsided, while the other turns out to be competitive. This year, we get good football in both games and I do think TCU has a real shot at winning this game. However, Michigan is one of the most efficient teams in the country, both offensively and defensively. If Michigan gets a sizable lead, it will be tough for the Frogs to do what they’ve done all year and come back to win the game in the end. I think this game is close all the way through, but Michigan’s run game wins it for them in the end, as they hold off Max Duggan and the Horned Frogs in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Michigan 35, TCU 31
This story was originally published December 28, 2022 at 10:24 AM.