With the Big 12 on life support, what’s next for TCU? We break down some options.
The Big 12 is on the verge of collapse with flagships Texas and Oklahoma formally announcing their intentions to leave Monday.
As of now, the league’s grant-of-rights media agreements don’t expire until June 2025 but an earlier departure date is expected for UT and OU. Their next stop? The SEC.
The next stop for the remaining eight schools? TBD.
As far as TCU is concerned, school officials are optimistic about finding a safe landing spot given its football success under Gary Patterson, its academic reputation and being located in one of the nation’s top media markets.
Here are a few paths forward for the Frogs.
Big 12/Pac-12 merger?
If the SEC is leading the way and college athletics is officially in the “superconference” era, then the Pac-12 should have an eye on expansion itself with 12 teams.
What if the remaining eight Big 12 schools and the Pac-12 merged together to form a 20-team superconference? It’s not that crazy of an idea in today’s environment.
It would open up inroads for Pac-12 schools to recruit heavily in Texas with three schools in the talent-rich state as well as provide the conference a number of schools in the central time zone.
With the Pac-12’s TV contract with ESPN and Fox set to expire following the 2023 season, a 20-team “superconference” would provide more content for TV networks. Content is king these days.
But, as one source described this idea, it’d be more of a “scheduling alliance” rather than a true “merger” centered on football and men’s basketball. Olympic sports may remain with each league with the possibility of a crossover game or two during the regular season.
New Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff told The Mercury News last week that the league is “not actively seeking to poach any teams from any conferences, but we’d be foolish not to listen if schools call us.”
Well, Kliavkoff has likely fielded a number of calls from the Big 12 and its member schools over the last few days.
Form a smaller pact?
If the Pac-12 isn’t interested in a full-on merger/scheduling alliance, TCU could sell itself to the Pac-12 or possibly Big Ten by joining forces with other leftovers from the Big 12.
A source confirmed that TCU has discussed packaging itself with Texas Tech, Baylor and Oklahoma State as a foursome that would get the Pac-12 to 16 teams. The four schools feel they’re stronger as a package opposed to individually.
Why would the Pac-12 be interested? Again, it would provide recruiting inroads into the state of Texas for other Pac-12 schools. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, has put together a solid football resume by reaching 15 straight bowls and finishing ranked in the top 25 six times in the past decade.
The Pac-12 may feel a different foursome is more attractive from the Big 12 such as Kansas and Oklahoma State to go along with TCU and Tech. Or another combination.
A similar sales pitch by TCU and others could be made to the Big Ten. The Pac-12 is the more likely scenario, but if the Big Ten wants to expand its footprint into Texas, adding one or two of the Big 12 schools is its best option to do so.
At the end of the day, TCU’s value peaks if it is able to align itself with others in the conference.
Big 12 stays intact?
The first two options are likely the best-case scenarios for TCU. However, the Pac-12 alliance is far from a given. After all, none of this is going to happen overnight.
Another option for the remaining Big 12 schools would be to assess and see if the conference is somehow reparable. It’s unlikely but the league at least has to see if it could lure a couple Power Five schools to join it and then pursue some of the top Group of Five programs.
If the league could convince Arizona and Arizona State to leave the Pac-12, or somehow get Colorado back in the fold, then add a Houston and a BYU, that could salvage the Big 12.
Again, it’s unlikely. The Big 12 has become the Titanic and it’s far-fetched to feel any Power Five school would leave their league to join. But those calls should be made.
Don’t even think about TCU …
▪ Joining the ACC or SEC. TCU’s best shot at remaining in a power conference is joining the Pac-12 or having the Big 12 and Pac-12 work out some sort of merger/scheduling alliance.
▪ Being happy in a Big 12 that expands with only Group of Five schools. Texas and OU represented almost half of the Big 12’s value and adding Group of Five schools only would severely diminish the league’s media rights payment. Is it the end of the world? No, but it’s certainly not TCU’s preferred path.
This story was originally published July 27, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
