Democrats fantasize — again — about blue Texas. Will this Republican help them? | Opinion
In Texas, we don’t need an atomic clock or Mayan calendar to tell what year it is.
Just look at where Democrats are in their perpetual effort to turn Texas blue.
It’s gone like this for 30 years: The party suffers a drubbing at the hands of Republicans in an even-numbered year. The following spring, a group of consultants announces a new effort — no, they really mean it this time! — to build up political infrastructure and compete short- and long-term. They find a donor with more hope (and money) than sense, earning millions in consultant fees.
Then, Democrats pledge yet again that they’ll build up party infrastructure, recruit awesome candidates and win from the ground level up. They confidently assert, despite decades of actual election results to the contrary, that Texas is not a red state but a nonvoting state.
And then, we’re back to blowouts and lamentations and new party leaders — while the consultants count the cash they made.
DEMOCRATS CREATE TEXAS MAJORITY PAC WITH GEORGE SOROS MONEY
Right now, we’re in Stage 2. A group calling itself Texas Majority PAC recently announced its “Blue Texas” campaign fed by Democratic superdonor (and, to Republicans, super-villain) George Soros.
Even the name is uninspiring. At least Battleground Texas (2013) and the Texas Democratic Trust (2005) sounded different. The latest strategy is just as warmed over as the name. Hold rallies, recruit candidates, sign up voters — because, you know, that’s never been tried.
And yet, there may be something different about the coming campaign cycle. Democrats think a Republican could be their ace in the hole. If Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton can topple U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in what promises to be an expensive, rancorous GOP primary, Democrats think Paxton’s corruption and far-right politics could make the general election competitive for someone like Colin Allred or Beto O’Rourke, the party’s last two competitive Senate candidates.
Some independent analysts agree. Chris Stirewalt, a former Fox News elections chief who has an enviable track record predicting contests around the country, says that extreme candidates such as Paxton or Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene could cost the GOP seats in the Senate that should be safe, to the point that Democrats could win control of the chamber in 2026.
Another factor in Democrats’ favor is the backlash most presidents’ parties face in midterm elections. Texas Democrats would love nothing more than for a repeat of 2018, when O’Rourke nearly unseated Sen. Ted Cruz as energized blue voters turned out to express their disdain for the first Trump administration.
That’s one election cycle. Let’s look at some others.
In 2020, Texas was closer between Donald Trump and Joe Biden than most people would have thought, though Trump still won it comfortably. Cornyn had the best night of just about any Texan, winning by more than 1 million votes.
Two years later, during Biden’s term, Republicans romped. O’Rourke was crushed by Gov. Greg Abbott, and no statewide GOP candidate, incumbent or otherwise — including Paxton — had to break a sweat to win.
In 2024, Democrats backslid. Trump’s margin was back to typical Republican levels, and Cruz blasted Allred despite tens of millions of dollars from Democrats around the country.
The bottom line: Democrats start a statewide race anywhere from 800,000 to 1 million votes short of the Republican in the race. To close that gap, Democrats need more new voters on their side and some Republicans to cross over. It’s an almost impossible task.
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Odds are that Paxton wouldn’t do as well as Cornyn, who’s won every statewide race he’s entered in a four-decade political career and has an advantage in name recognition.
KEN PAXTON SHOULD BE BEATABLE, THANKS TO CORRUPTION CHARGES
If he wins the GOP nomination, Paxton should be beatable in a general election. He’s been dogged by charges of corruption, abuse of power and bribery for years. Even some Republicans have soured on him. But he’s beaten every charge and is a hero to the segment of voters who dominate GOP primaries.
In 2022, it was widely known that Paxton was under federal investigation, yet he won re-election by nearly 10 percentage points. Does that sound like someone who’s particularly in danger of being the first Republican to lose a statewide race since 1994?
Currently, the answer is no. Things can change, especially with a volatile national political climate.
But look again at the calendar. Right now, it’s the season of perpetual Democratic hope. The winds of reality aren’t far off.
This story was originally published June 12, 2025 at 2:06 PM.
