Did we see the start of a 2026 Democratic surge in Texas elections? Not so fast | Opinion
One constant truth about local elections, especially in Texas, is that turnout is so low, the smallest surge can make the biggest difference.
Another is that when it does, people will rush to interpret — or misinterpret — what the results might mean for the next big state or national election.
So, it’s not surprising that victories by moderate or even progressive candidates in school and city elections in some of the redder areas of Texas, including Tarrant County, have people wondering if this is a sign of a nationwide wave to come or even the start of the great Democratic dream: turning Texas blue.
The short answer: No.
It’s noteworthy, of course, when hard-right candidates lose in bright-red suburbs such as Keller or Grapevine-Colleyville. But Democrats there, as elsewhere, are eager for any opportunity to register dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump, the MAGA agenda and Christian conservatives who have spent years now targeting certain school boards and other races.
Democrats crowed about the results. The national party even took a victory lap about its “overperformance” in these nonpartisan races, in which almost no one campaigned openly as a Democrat. The Tarrant County Republican Party famously went 0-for-11 in races in which it made endorsements, a rare step for nonpartisan elections.
TRUMP PUSHBACK AND THE COMING MIDTERM ELECTIONS
It’s fair to call it more evidence that Democrats remain on track to do well in next year’s midterm elections. But that’s due to the Trump pushback and most of all, basic history and math — out-of-power parties tend to win big in the middle of a presidential term of the opposing party. Democrats, while at an ebb in their power and popularity, still have a hearty base of voters.
They’ll probably even do better in Texas than in 2022, when Republicans maxed out their frustration at Joe Biden and held power statewide without breaking a sweat. Or like in 2024, when Tarrant County swung back to Trump’s column but went narrowly against Ted Cruz while he was winning an otherwise resounding reelection to the Senate.
That doesn’t mean Democrats are on track for lasting gains. As for the local GOP’s shutout, that’s a reflection of the party’s narrowing base of activists choosing glow-in-the-dark candidates over sensible conservatives who can win just about anywhere.
Democrats in Texas have just one piece of the formula: voter anger. What they don’t have, and don’t show signs of acquiring soon, is money, organization or compelling statewide candidates.
BETO O’ROURKE AND COLIN ALLRED AGAIN, TEXAS DEMOCRATS?
Some seem to be pinning their hopes on Attorney General Ken Paxton beating Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary but being vulnerable in the general election. It’s enough of a draw that the last two Democrats to head the party’s statewide ticket, Beto O’Rourke and Colin Allred, are making noise about running again.
Paxton is noxious and corrupt, but no Democrat (or even opposing Republican) has been able to take advantage of it. Are Democrats really going to pour tens of millions of dollars into another Texas Senate race to see O’Rourke and Allred flame out again?
And who will the party offer up for the top state jobs? After three terms each for Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, there might at least be an opportunity to capitalize on voter fatigue. You can’t beat somebodies with nobodies, though, and it’s instructive that no well-known Democrat is stepping forward for either race.
The party’s problems in Tarrant County will mute the impact of Trump backlash in local races, too. There’s just not enough money, compelling candidates or campaign infrastructure to mount serious competition.
So by all means, take note of what happened in Texas’ local elections. It definitely speaks to Democrats’ anger at Trump and the limits voters will set on ideological governance.
Just don’t expect the narrative that played out in Keller or Katy to repeat there, let alone in Kentucky or Kalamazoo.
This story was originally published May 8, 2025 at 10:01 AM.
