Analysis: Dreams of blue Tarrant County still on hold. If anything, Dems sliding back | Opinion
Local Democrats never had huge hopes for this year’s elections in Tarrant County. With luck, they thought they might pick off a state House race. Some even wondered if Sheriff Bill Waybourn could be vulnerable.
Uh, no.
If anything, Democratic efforts to turn Tarrant blue took a step backward Tuesday. Donald Trump handily won Tarrant County, and Sen. Ted Cruz lost it by about 1,250 votes. The last time each was on the ballot, 2020 and 2018, the margins were much more friendly to Democrats, including a win for Joe Biden. That, plus continued population growth, fed hope that Democrats could do better down the ballot in 2024.
But it wasn’t to be. In the one Texas House race where Democrats had some optimism, Arlington-based District 94, Republican Rep. Tony Tinderholt is cruising to re-election.
Waybourn is sailing to a third term. The sheriff was a heavy favorite, but controversies over management of the jail and Waybourn’s political activity seemed to at least make it worth watching.
Plus, the example of Dallas County 20 years ago loomed large. Dallas was a Republican stronghold for years. In 2004, in the home county of the incumbent president, voters elected a Democratic sheriff. Oh, and that previously unknown candidate, Lupe Valdez, was a Hispanic lesbian.
It was so unlikely that it was baffling. But two years later, Democrats swept the county, and they haven’t relinquished control since.
Democrat Patrick Moses, an experienced federal law enforcement leader, couldn’t match the feat against Waybourn. He never came close: Waybourn is headed for his biggest win yet. In 2016, he won the office with no Democratic opponent, so his 81% of the vote was an outlier. In 2020, Waybourn won by 5.4 percentage points; he was on track Tuesday night to win by perhaps 9 percentage points.
So, it’s a bad night for Tarrant Democrats. Yes, Allred narrowly won, but Democrats were counting on a bigger showing here.
But nothing is permanent in politics. Purely on electoral prospects, Tarrant Democrats should welcome a Trump win tonight, if that comes to pass. They’d be much better off running on the winds of a Trump backlash. That’s what happened in 2018, when Beto O’Rourke nearly took down Cruz and Democrats picked up congressional and legislative seats.
That’s surely little solace for this election night. But if Democrats are to have any hope of making real gains in Tarrant County and Texas, they’d better start thinking a couple of cycles ahead.
Updated Wednesday morning to reflect Colin Allred’s narrow win in Tarrant County.
This story was originally published November 5, 2024 at 9:28 PM.
