Tarrant Democrats won’t get help from state party. They need luck instead | Opinion

Tarrant County Democrats are hoping for a break in next year’s elections. Once the Dec. 8 deadline for candidates to file for races passed, the party bragged about its “near-record” slate of candidates for legislative and county races.

If the adage is true and 80% of success in life is just showing up, then the party at least has people in place if conditions break right for Democratic upsets next fall.

But as usual, the state party did the locals no favors. Democrats aren’t likely to be competitive in races for governor, lieutenant governor and top offices. At the top of the ticket, the probable U.S. Senate nominee, Jasmine Crockett, brings energy that can attract new voters but will repel many moderates and Republicans who might otherwise want to log a protest vote.

A party out of power as long as Democrats in Texas and Tarrant County needs help and luck to lodge unexpected victories. They may get the luck in the form of broad dissatisfaction with the party in power, especially if the economy sours.

But the help — strong, well-funded candidates at the top of the ticket — is sorely lacking.

Crockett will bring a burst of energy to the Democratic primary, along with national attention and strong fundraising. But what could work in Tarrant County is a center-left, temperate Democrat — note that Colin Allred won here against Sen. Ted Cruz despite Cruz winning handily statewide. Crockett is a progressive firebrand always looking to score a viral video with incendiary comments.

In the top statewide races, Democrats have largely punted. State Rep. Gina Hinojosa is the likely nominee for governor, but she’s unknown beyond her hometown of Brownsville and her home district in Austin. Hinojosa is vice-chair of the party’s progressive caucus in the House, not a label you want to take into a statewide race in which Republicans are on an eight-term winning streak.

Gov. Greg Abbott will overwhelm her with campaign cash. He’s popular with Republicans and, as much as this drives Democrats crazy, inoffensive to most independents and even some Democrats.

By all rights, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick should be more vulnerable than Abbott. He is combative and stands athwart what most Texans prefer on issues such as marijuana and gambling. But he’s got a smart populist streak, a strong campaign war chest and luck in drawing weak opposition. His likely opponent is state Rep. Vikki Goodwin of Austin, who will struggle to boost her name recognition or raise enough money to be competitive.

In Tarrant County, the initial focus will be on an unusual battle of prominent Democrats running for county judge. Seven-term congressman Marc Veasey of Fort Worth, left with no path to re-election by redistricting, jumped into the race at the last minute, but he’s well-known in the party and will have ample campaign funds.

County Commissioner Alisa Simmons of Arlington is also a victim of mid-decade map meddling. Republican commissioners all but ensured that their party will win her precinct. She’s drawn attention and even adoration from local Democrats for her willingness to spar with GOP County Judge Tim O’Hare of Southlake.

The shorthand version of the race will be that Veasey is a more moderate Democrat and Simmons a liberal firebrand. But it’s a stylistic fight, not an ideological one.

O’Hare has already signaled that he’s ready for a bare-knuckle battle, and that’s not surprising. His pugnacious style has given him an iron grip on county policy, and he’ll campaign the way he governs.

We had to laugh, however, when O’Hare’s campaign suggested in a written statement that Veasey would inject partisan politics into the county. The judge has boasted about launching the redistricting effort, which was unusual for its timing and its execution by an out-of-state law practice rather than county staff, for only one reason: to elect another Republican.

He clearly wants to run against Simmons, partly because he relishes a good political fight. But O’Hare probably understands, too, that Veasey will come with a better-funded campaign and familiarity with more voters by virtue of his time in Congress.

Many Democrats hold out hope that O’Hare’s divisive term creates an opening, particularly if their party is energized by midterm elections and Republicans are discouraged by their political prospects. But it will take a huge wave to swamp O’Hare or any other countywide Republican candidate, and right now, the water just isn’t that high.

Democrats probably won’t get much help with high-profile or competitive congressional or legislative races, either. The districts are drawn too well for one party or the other. The possible exception is whether Abbott and Republicans overreached in trying to create five new GOP seats in Congress. If Latino voters have soured on Trump, upsets are more possible than in recent years.

But that’s a matter of luck. Local Democrats will spend the next 11 months hoping for plenty of it — because they sure didn’t get much help from their state party.

This story was originally published December 11, 2025 at 2:23 PM.