Redistricting Tarrant County might boost GOP, but don’t call it conservative | Opinion

County Judge Tim O’Hare’s power play to force a rare mid-decade redrawing of Tarrant County’s political map could be costly on two fronts that have traditionally mattered to conservative Republicans.

The first is the financial cost. O’Hare prodded a 3-2 vote of commissioners April 2 to approve the hiring of a Virginia-based activist law firm. For up to $30,000, the Public Interest Legal Foundation will analyze the county’s population and recommend changes. That will hardly be the end of the legal bills, though.

The second is the precedent. In an era in which political might increasingly makes right, Republicans are saying that it’s OK, even encouraged, to change the election ground rules anytime. Gee, how could that possibly backfire?

REDISTRICTING TYPICALLY FOLLOWS U.S. CENSUS

Redrawing political lines, or redistricting, is typically done every decade, once the U.S. Census updates population and demographic information. In 2021, the Commissioners Court decided not to change the boundaries set up in 2011, finding no population shifts significant enough to require change to keep precincts roughly the same size.

The county is divided into four precincts, and the county judge is elected countywide. That has long yielded a Republican majority as large as 4-1 until 2018, when Democrats won Precinct 2. That area — think Arlington, Grand Prairie, Mansfield and smaller nearby cities — has shifted blue, and Democrat Alisa Simmons won it in 2022.

Republicans, understandably, want it back. Former Commissioner Andy Nguyen lost to Simmons even in a fairly strong year for Texas Republicans. Simmons has been a particular thorn in O’Hare’s side, and their unrestrained sniping has made often-sleepy commissioners’ meetings popcorn worthy.

To be fair, redistricting is inherently political. Both parties are guilty of mapmaking sins wherever they are in power, perhaps most notably protecting incumbents through the manipulation known as gerrymandering. O’Hare and Commissioners Matt Krause and Manny Ramirez voted to press an advantage while they have it.

The county remains a GOP stronghold. But it’s a lot closer to 50-50 than 75-25, which a new map would surely yield. Simmons beat Nguyen about 51.5% to 48.5%, hardly a blowout. As political realignment, especially of Hispanic voters, continues, it seems Republicans could make up the 4,100-vote gap that yielded victory for Simmons the old-fashioned way.

But then, why work so hard? Why not just change the playing field rather than put a little more money and muscle into turning out the vote?

TARRANT COUNTY MAP’S CURRENT GERRYMANDERED PRECINCTS

Republicans are right when they note that parts of the current map are a gerrymandered mess. Precinct 1 looks like someone spilled paint that dribbled across the entire map. But when a Republican court drew the map in 2011, it packed Euless-area Democrats into a Fort Worth precinct to protect three other Republican-locked seats. That included the Arlington seat that swung Democrat years later.

Tradeoffs are inevitable, and if the current group doesn’t like the precinct maps, the next Census will provide ample opportunity to change them with less political upheaval.

O’Hare won in 2022 promising a right-wing revolution. And he has largely delivered, cutting property taxes, trimming spending and fighting on various cultural fronts. He’s been turned down on very little — perhaps most notably, his effort to eliminate certain college-campus early voting locations last year.

But throwing elbows even in victory is the way to excel in party politics these days. It’s not enough to win most of the battles; you must crush the other side. Heck, why not redraw districts every two or four years? Use the latest numbers to extract every advantage, right?

One reason is the legal cost. Any changes to the map now will undoubtedly lead to expensive litigation; Democrats will contend — and said as much during debate on the contract — that diminishing the collective power of minority groups in Precincts 1 and 2 violates the federal Voting Rights Act. That’s probably why O’Hare selected the firm he did, rather than asking perfectly capable county staffers or even a Texas firm to tackle the work.

Unrestrained political warfare has a consequence in that the trend only goes one way. Republicans may find it preposterous to think Tarrant County could go blue, though Joe Biden did win here in 2020. If Democrats ever capture a majority, they can point to O’Hare’s example and draw maps that entrench themselves as long as possible.

Conservatives used to think about those kinds of unintended consequences and proceed, well, conservatively. No longer.