Texas Democrats see bright signs, but don’t bet on beating GOP yet | Opinion
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Democrats have intense primaries; Republicans lead by 5–7 points.
- Talarico can draw independents and donors; Crockett lags with independents.
- Cornyn may face a runoff if under 40%; Hunt's voters' moves are unclear.
Do not drink the blue Kool-Aid.
Yes, Democrats are “crawling over broken glass,” as U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz once said, to vote against President Donald Trump, 23 years of Republican rule in Austin and 39 years in Tarrant County.
But in an election year already full of homewrecker Republicans, felony bribery convictions and wild sexual confessions, Democrats still can’t be sure of winning an election, much less flipping the U.S. Senate.
Democrats are going wild because they have an intense primary for the first time in 36 years. Republicans don’t really have much to decide until the May 26 runoff.
State Rep. James Talarico is capable of raising enough money to win the U.S. Senate, maybe flip it back to Democrats and draw voters who will help Democrats up and down the ballot.
But U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett is capable of beating him for the Democratic Senate nomination. And she hasn’t been as good at raising money.
There are bright signs for Texas Democrats. Of the 1 million Democrats who have already voted, one-fourth are completely new to any party primary.
(Only 3% are totally new voters, indicating again that some Democrats’ idea to appeal to nonvoters is inherently foolish.)
But when it comes to November and the general election, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick continue to hold a 5-to-7-point lead in what is basically a party-line vote over Democratic state Reps. Gina Hinojosa and Vikki Goodwin.
Abbott is polling at 49%.
That means he only needs 1% of the undecided vote to seal a win.
If any Democrat is going to win statewide or countywide, it takes a heavy turnout of Democrats, plus a sweep of independent voters and the 2% or so of voters who are straying Republicans weary of Trump.
Talarico could get there, particularly if his opponent is MAGA Republican heartthrob Ken Paxton.
Crockett is a brilliant lawyer and bold Democrat, but she has yet to strike a chord with independent voters.
A Crockett-Paxton campaign between the two most partisan candidates would only drive independent voters away. Predictions for that election would settle into the 53%-47% Republican baseline of recent polls.
In the Republican U.S. Senate primary, Paxton can already claim a moral victory.
That may be the only way that term can ever be applied to Paxton.
Paxton can become the first challenger in 12 years to oust a sitting Texas Republican from Congress in a runoff. But all may not be over for U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.
Normally, an incumbent receiving less than 40% of the primary vote will not win the runoff.
But if Cornyn makes this runoff ahead of U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt — and that is not a sure thing — it’s not clear where Hunt’s voters will go.
Some are voting for Hunt because they can’t stand Cornyn. Some are voting for Hunt because they can’t stand Paxton.
If Hunt makes the runoff, he can win. But he was narrowly trailing Cornyn and Paxton in recent polls.
Coming from behind is not new for Cornyn.
In 1998, when he first ran for attorney general, Cornyn was a little-known Texas Supreme Court justice who drew only 32% of the vote. He barely made the runoff against Barry Williamson, a former Texas Railroad Commissioner.
The party’s conservative faction split in the runoff with Cornyn’s campaign challenging Williamson’s résumé as misleading and third-place candidate Tom Pauken blistering Williamson as dishonorable.
Cornyn won with 58% of the vote.
Back then, voters cared about ethics and honor.
This story was originally published February 26, 2026 at 10:43 AM.
