Who’s ahead between Jasmine Crockett, James Talarico? Here’s the latest poll
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Crockett leads Talarico 56%-44% in UT/Texas Politics Project poll of 460 voters.
- Paxton edges Cornyn 36%-34%, within margin, likely forcing May 26 runoff.
- Roy leads Middleton 40%-38%, within margin, likely forcing a runoff.
U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett kept a wide lead in the Democratic race for the U.S. Senate nomination and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn will be forced into a May Republican runoff, according to the newest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll.
Crockett led state Rep. James Talarico, 56%-44%, in a poll of 460 primary voters Feb. 2-16.
That was before Talarico’s Feb, 16 interview on “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” aired on YouTube to avoid running afoul of FCC equal-time rules. The interview drew 9 million viewers within a week.
Crockett, a frequent cable talk show guest during her two terms in Washington, had a favorable rating of 71% with Democratic voters, and only 12% said they didn’t know much about her.
Talarico had a 59% favorability rating, but 21% said they don’t know much about him.
Crockett expanded her 8-point lead from the previous poll, conducted Jan. 20-31 by the University of Houston.
Talarico’s campaign responded the same day with its own poll that showed Talarico winning, 47%-43% and leading Crockett, 47%-22%, on “electability.”
The campaign poll of 800 voters was conducted Feb. 10-12,
The winner of the March 3 primary will face the winner of a Republican primary that will apparently go to a May 26 runoff between Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a McKinney Republican.
Paxton and Cornyn are mathematically tied in the poll of 460 primary voters.
Paxton is technically ahead, 36%-34%. But that was within the poll’s margin of error.
U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt is close behind at 26%.
Paxton and Cornyn have comparable favorability ratings. Paxton is favored by 52% of primary voters to 18% who rated him unfavorable. Cornyn is favored by 50%-21%.
Paxton had led the previous poll in the race by 7 points, but the candidates were mathematically tied in two earlier polls.
The race for the Republican nomination for Texas attorney general also appears headed to a runoff between U.S. Rep. Chip Roy and state Sen. Mayes Middleton.
They were mathematically tied in the poll with Roy at 40% and Middleton at 38%, within the margin of error.
Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger state Rep. Gina Hinojosa appeared on the way to easy nomination in their parties.
This story was originally published February 25, 2026 at 10:14 AM.
