Will this week’s snow strain the Texas power grid like the 2021 winter storm?
Snow is in the forecast for later this week in the Fort Worth area, and while North Texans should monitor conditions, days-long power outages like those seen in February 2021 aren’t expected.
For those living in the state during the winter storm four years ago, any chance of winter weather can bring back fears of blackouts, but grid conditions are projected to be sufficient over the coming days, according to forecasts from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. Better known as ERCOT, the nonprofit that’s under state oversight manages the flow of electricity to the majority of the state. Unlike the rest of the country, most of Texas is on its own power grid.
Here’s what to know and how conditions compare to February 2021.
The weather forecast
The National Weather Service for Dallas-Fort Worth predicts freezing temperatures with snow Wednesday night through Friday morning. The exact amount is unknown, but snowfall could measure anywhere from 1 to 4 inches.
Lows are expected below 32, but highs will climb above freezing through at least Friday.
This is different than in February 2021 when the there was a days long winter storm across the state. In the Dallas-Fort Worth area, the frigid temperatures lasted days in mid-February, with highs above freezing only once between Feb. 10 and Feb. 18.
Millions across the state were left without electricity for several days. The state found that 246 deaths across 77 counties were related to the 2021 storm, though a Buzzfeed report estimates the number is much higher.
The grid conditions
ERCOT’s six-day forecast projects that there will be enough electricity to meet demand. A little after 12:20 p.m. on Monday, Jan. 16, there was more than 15,200 megawatts of power in the state’s operating reserve.
The power grid manager has issued a weather watch for the state from Monday through Jan. 10 because of “forecasted cold weather across the ERCOT region, higher electrical demand, and the potential for lower reserves.” Normal grid conditions are expected during the weather watch, according to EROCT.
An ERCOT representative was not available for an interview Monday, a spokesperson said in an email to the Star-Telegram.
The spokesperson said ERCOT is closely monitoring winter weather conditions and that the public will receive updates if conditions change.
In February 2021, with most of Texas frozen, the demand for power outpaced the supply resulting in outages across the state that lasted days for some.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott signed legislation that year in response to the storm. Together, the power grid bills included reforms to ERCOT’s board of directors, weatherization requirements for electricity generators and transmitters and the establishment of a power outage alert system.
The grid has been “significantly improved” since Feburary 2021, but not everything has been fixed, said Doug Lewin, author of the Texas Energy and Power Newsletter and president of Stoic Energy Consulting, which describes itself as “working for a clean, equitable energy future in Texas.” Lewin doesn’t expect a repeat of the 2021 winter storm.
Key improvements after the 2021 storm include solar energy production, increased electricity storage capacity and new standards from the Public Utility Commission for power plants preparing for winter weather, Lewin said.
Improvements to natural gas supply winter preparations and a focus on reducing energy waste are still needed, including from state, Lewin said.
The Texas Oil and Gas Association said in a Monday situation report that “Texas’ natural gas production, processing, transmission, and storage sectors continue to have needed production and storage” and that steps have been taken to prepare for winter weather, including Railroad Commission inspections of critical infrastructure. The trade association represents the natural gas industry.
Walt Baum, the CEO of Powering Texans, a trade association made up of the Calpine, Constellation, NRG and Vistra energy companies, also pointed to improved winterization efforts since February 2021. The group describes itself as “advocating for policies that promote innovation, competition, consumer choice, and reliability in the Texas energy sector.”
There have been winter preparation activities like power plant inspections and coordinating calls between state entities and power companies, Baum said
“I think right now the grid is in good shape,” he said.
Updates on weather, power grid status
This story was originally published January 6, 2025 at 12:59 PM.
