Will it be a wet or dry summer? Weather service weighs in on El Nino in North Texas
The first day of summer is June 21, but North Texans are already feeling the heat in early May.
Since May 4, temperatures in the Dallas-Fort Worth area have reached highs in the mid to upper 80s with the warmest day of the month on May 5 at 96 degrees.
Why is it already hot in Texas?
Patricia Sanchez, National Weather Service meteorologist, said this time of year has been unseasonably warm due to warm air coming from the south and southwest.
While temperatures have not reached record breaking numbers, Sanchez said the warm air has caused humid conditions which makes it feel warmer.
The weather pattern La Nina — which contributed to drought conditions in Texas — ended earlier this year after an uncharacteristic three years. Now the Dallas-Fort Worth area is in a transitional period in preparation for El Nino.
What is El Nino?
During El Nino conditions, sea surface temperatures face positive changes which leads to cooler and wetter conditions than normal.
The end of La Nina earlier this year entered North Texas into a neutral period until El Nino.
The National Weather Service Climate Predication Center announced in April that neutral conditions were expected to continue through spring with a 62 percent chance of El Nino developing from May through July.
Will North Texas see a wet or dry summer?
Typically El Nino means a wetter season for areas like Texas, California and Florida, Sanchez said.
The outlook for May forecasts a wetter season than usual; storms are in the forecast for the Dallas-Fort Worth area this week due to a storm system moving through the Gulf Coast.
“For right now the one month outlook — which right now is valid for May — we have kind of some signal that the rainfall is going to be more than normal,” she said.
The three month outlook going into summer — from May through July — shows neutral conditions leading into El Nino, Sanchez said.
The Climate Prediction Center forecasts weather patterns to transition to El Nino between June through August and persisting into the winter.
“We’ll have to kind of keep an eye on things from there, but at least for the May part we’ve definitely been...more active, but the overall three months is still kind of the same equal chances,” Sanchez said. “If we get everything right now then June and July might be slightly quieter for the area.”
