Will Texas drought conditions end along with La Nina? Expert explains El Nino and what’s next
La Nina, the weather pattern which contributed to drought conditions in Texas, ended after an uncharacteristic three years.
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center issued an advisory Thursday announcing the end to La Nina, reporting weakened below-average sea surface temperatures in February.
The Climate Prediction Center’s advisory is indication that weather patterns are shifting out of La Nina and into El Nino, meteorologist Monique Sellers said.
What is La Nina?
During La Nina conditions, sea surface temperatures are negative and the colder temperatures affect what weather conditions we see in the United States.
“This is why we’ve been dealing with typically drier than normal conditions and warmer than normal temperatures,” Sellers said.
The Dallas-Fort Worth area saw record high temperatures during summer 2022 and in January this year.
What is El Nino?
El Nino is the opposite of La Nina.
During El Nino conditions, sea surface temperatures face positive changes which leads to cooler and wetter conditions than normal, Sellers said.
When will El Nino start?
The end of La Nina marks the beginning of a neutral weather conditions before El Nino starts.
The neutral conditions will hopefully give some relief from the dry conditions seen during La Nina, Sellers said.
The Climate Prediction Center estimates neutral weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere continuing through the spring and summer.
How long do La Nina and El Nino last?
Lengths for each of the weather patterns vary, Sellers said.
The weather system changes between El Nino to neutral or La Nina conditions every three to four years, on average, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Typically La Nina conditions persist for as long as two years, making its recent three year length abnormal, Sellers said.
Because La Nina causes drier conditions, it has led to drought conditions in Texas.
Will Texas drought conditions end?
Texas has been in a drought since September 2021, coinciding with the La Nina weather pattern.
The state’s dry conditions contributed to wildfires like the Mustang wildfire in Johnson County in July 2022 and the Palo Pinto County fire in September 2022.
With La Nina conditions finished, climate experts are hopeful that it signals the end of drought conditions in Texas, Sellers said.
“Spring is typically one of our wetter seasons of the year anyway, but we’re hoping that as we’re coming out of La Nina that that means we can get a little bit of relief from this drought that we’ve been kind of carrying on for several years,” she said.
This story was originally published March 10, 2023 at 4:00 AM.
