Could North Texas see increased gas prices after U.S. bombing of Iran?
Experts say it’s “too soon to say” if gas prices will increase in America this week after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear sites Sunday in effort to destroy Iran’s nuclear program.
Shortly after the attack, oil futures (a financial contract on the buying/selling of oil) sharply increased but have cooled since then, AAA Texas spokesperson Daniel Armbruster said.
“Certainly, there is a situation that should be monitored, because it could very well have an impact on gas prices,” Armbruster told the Star-Telegram. “It’s just so soon to say how big of an impact, or how long of an impact, it will be.”
What happens overseas does have an domino effect on what happens at the pump nationally. While it’s unclear if the U.S. will launch further attacks against Iranian facilities, Iran launched a missile attack Monday on a U.S. military base in Qatar in retaliation. There were no casualties, according to the Associated Press.
President Donald Trump said Sunday’s air strikes caused “monumental damage” to Iran’s nuclear sites.
Here’s what to know about how the conflict could affect gas prices in the future.
Global impacts of U.S.-Iran conflict
Crude oil is the main ingredient in gasoline, which means if one begins elevating in price, the other is soon to follow.
Over the last week, AAA Texas saw crude oil and gas prices rise slightly after Israel attacked Iran, Armbruster said. The statewide gas price average was $2.82 per gallon last week — a seven cent increase from the past week, but a 22 cent decrease compared to the same time last year.
Typically, it takes a week or two to see retail gas prices go up after crude oil prices increase. Sometimes it can happen in a few days, but normally, it’s longer than that.
In regards to the weekend bombing, it’s too soon to say whether it’s going to have a heavy impact on gas prices, Armbruster said.
“Everything as far as gasoline markets are stable, crude oil markets remain stable,” he said. “It’s getting a lot of headlines, a lot of attention, but at this point, as far as global supplies go, we don’t see anything that is going to lead to a long term disruption at this point.”
However, Armbruster said things could change if the Strait of Hormuz closes.
Around 20 percent of global oil supplies pass through the strait, which is a vital shipping lane controlled by both Iran and Oman. While Iran’s parliament approved a motion to close the strait, a final decision lays with the country’s Supreme National Security Council, according to the BBC.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has since asked China to prevent Iran from closing the strait. Trump called for low oil prices Monday on social media site Truth Social, saying: “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!”
Plenty of oil in U.S.
The U.S. does not import much, if any, of its crude oil from Iran.
Much of the crude oil imported to the U.S. comes from Canada, Armbruster said. In addition to Canada, the U.S. also imports petroleum from Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Brazil, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The U.S. also exports plenty of crude oil to the rest of the world.
“I think most market experts see this as it’s still hard to see a long term disruption in global supply at this point, even given that the situation’s somewhat escalated,” Armbruster said.
At this point, with the conflict this fresh, “no one out there credibly” is anticipating a dramatic rise in crude oil prices, Armbruster said.
That doesn’t mean people should not plan for an increase at the pump, especially if there’s any further escalation, Armbruster said. But, as of now, things are stable.
“It is certainly a situation to monitor, but nothing to be alarmed about, or to worry about, as far as gas prices go at this point,” Armbruster said.
This story was originally published June 23, 2025 at 4:05 PM.
