Final polls swing between Jasmine Crockett, James Talarico: Who’s leading now?
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Talarico leads Crockett 52%-47% in Emerson/Nexstar poll (±3% m.o.e.).
- Independents favor Talarico strongly; declared Democrats back Crockett 50%-49%.
- High early voting and mixed polls leave the Democratic primary outcome uncertain.
Polls continue their up-and-down swing going into Tuesday’s Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, with state Rep. James Talarico leading the most recent poll but with a thinner lead over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett.
Talarico leads Crockett, 52%-47%, in the Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of 850 voters Feb. 26-27 released Sunday by Boston-based Emerson for the Irving-based Nexstar network.
The Round Rock representative led Crockett, 47%-36%, in a January poll by Emerson. So Talarico passed 50%, but Crockett moved within 5 points. The poll has an error margin of plus or minus 3%, meaning results can vary by that much in either direction.
Talarico leads widely among early voters polled, 58%-41%, according to Emerson/Nexstar. More people supporting Crockett said they plan to vote Election Day.
Talarico’s lead is made up entirely of independent voters choosing to vote in the Democratic primary, according to the poll.
Independent voters chose Talarico, 62%-35%, while those declared as Democrats chose Crockett, 50%-49%.
The poll was the second in a row to show Talarico ahead after Crockett, a Dallas congresswoman, had a wide lead in earlier University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Polls.
Talarico led Crockett, 52%-40%, in a Feb. 23-24 poll by Mississippi-based Chism Strategies, a Democratic political polling firm with an office in San Antonio.
With Democrats approaching record turnout in early voting, the race appears difficult to forecast.
In the Republican primary, the new poll from Emerson/Nexstar continued to show Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in a mathematical tie.
Paxton led by 4 percentage points, 40%-36%. But that was within the margin of error. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt had 17%.
Paxton’s lead grew from his 1-point edge in an Emerson/Nexstar January poll.
Paxton has consistently led most polls, although only the Chism poll showed him with a wide lead. The Chism poll showed him leading by 12 points.
If no candidate wins more than 50%, Paxton and Cornyn will meet again in a May 26 runoff.
The earlier Chism poll also showed that Cornyn would gain 10 points in the runoff if he wins the endorsement of President Donald Trump.
The new Emerson poll did not include other races. Other recent polls have shown that the race for the Republican nomination for Texas attorney general appears headed to a runoff between U.S. Rep. Chip Roy and state Sen. Mayes Middleton.
Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa has consistently appeared likely to cruise to the Democratic nomination for governor and would face Gov. Greg Abbott in the fall.
This story was originally published March 2, 2026 at 9:33 AM with the headline "Final polls swing between Jasmine Crockett, James Talarico: Who’s leading now?."
