In this Dallas-Fort Worth congressional race, rural voters could hold key to victory
Texas Democrats are counting on increased voter turnout and dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump to help Stephen Daniel win U.S. Rep. Ron Wright’s District 6 House seat.
But Republicans and experts are skeptical whether voter enthusiasm and registration efforts are enough to carry the Democratic challenger through a district that includes parts of urban Tarrant County and all of rural Ellis and Navarro counties.
While Wright lost to his Democratic challenger in Tarrant County in 2018, votes from the other two counties were more than enough for him to win the seat Joe Barton had left amid scandal.
Now Wright, a former Tarrant County tax assessor-collector, is defending his seat against a Waxahachie attorney who is campaigning on restructuring health care while shaming Wright for his voting record on health care reform and coronavirus aid.
“When the time for Texas (District) 6 to have real leadership and have someone to lead on a major issue in this country, where was Ron Wright? He was nowhere to be found on it,” Daniel said.
Wright said some of his priorities are improving health care, minimizing the federal government’s role in Texas business and coronavirus recovery.
“Voters in CD-6, regardless of partisan leaning, want many of the same things,” Wright wrote in an email. “They want to get back to work, see their kids back in school and see this country back on its feet. Our lives and well-being are at stake.”
For the first time in recent history, the district is one of a dozen Texas congressional districts Cook Political Report lists as a competitive race. But Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at University of Houston, said Ellis and Navarro counties have grown more conservative as parts of Tarrant County have become more liberal.
“Even in an election year where Democrats are surging because of the dislike of the incumbent president, it’s still going to be a tall order to get enough Democrats to come out,” Rottinghaus said.
However, Rottinghaus and other experts pointed to the influx of new voters and the record early voting numbers as questions the campaign will not be able to answer until after election day.
“It would take an earthquake for Wright to lose, I think,” said Jim Riddlesperger, a political science professor at TCU. “That said, could this be an earthquake year? I don’t know an exact answer.”
County leaders working to ‘move the needle’
Ellis County Democrats and Republicans said they’ve seen interest like never before in the race between Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. Both groups have worked to educate people on the House race and other issues down the ballot.
Both parties have extended their headquarter office hours in the weeks before the election after people increasingly wanted to pick up presidential election signs.
Randy Bellomy, chair of the Ellis County Republican Party, said the party has held events and led more community engagement efforts, as parades and larger events outside the Metroplex have been canceled due to coronavirus concerns.
“Most of it has been just by word of mouth and also just getting people involved, getting them to talk to their neighbors,” he said.
The party has also led fundraising efforts for Wright, who was briefly hospitalized in September due to complications with his lung cancer treatment.
Kelly Blackburn, chair of the Ellis County Democratic Party, said her party has hired staff to post voting and candidate information on social media. They’ve seen an uptick in phone calls and emails, as well as an influx of visitors at their offices. While she said the county won’t turn blue “by any stretch of the imagination,” every vote helps.
“If we just move the needle a few percentage points, that alone ... could put him over the top,” she said.
Experts say the district’s urban and rural makeup make it unlike many others. However, both areas are changing. Ellis County’s population grew by 23% between 2010 and 2019, according to census data. Since 2018, more than 13,000 new voters have registered in the county, according to the Secretary of State.
“It’s just the changing nature of Texas politics — the fact that the Republicans cannot take Texas for granted anymore and they’re going to have to hone their message if they want to remain the majority party in Texas,” Riddlesperger said.
This story was originally published October 29, 2020 at 6:00 AM.
