How does national group’s Thanksgiving cost breakdown match our Price Check?
Each year, shoppers from all 50 states and Puerto Rico shop for Thanksgiving items at local grocery stores and report their prices to the American Farm Bureau Federation. The shoppers look for a 12-item Thanksgiving feast that feeds 10 people, during the first week of November. This year, they found a 5% decrease in overall cost from last year.
The decreasing price tag comes as a surprise, as turkey farms have struggled with dwindling flocks from the bird flu, according to the AFBF. Turkey is the largest cost when it comes to a Thanksgiving grocery list. This year, the AFBF found that frozen turkey prices are down while fresh turkey prices continue to rise due to the highly contagious illness.
And this year, the AFBF found that while the overall meal price is down, a frozen turkey accounts for 39% of the feast cost — and the prices for sides are rising.
“Price increases for fresh produce and key baking ingredients reflect higher costs throughout the supply chain,” according to the 2025 Thanksgiving survey. “Farmers who grow the fruits, vegetables and potatoes for many Thanksgiving staples continue to face elevated expenses for fertilizer, fuel, machinery, labor and land, which tightens already narrow margins and limits production capacity.”
The Star-Telegram team also shopped AFBF’s 10-person feast grocery list at stores in Fort Worth. Let’s take a look at their survey and what our numbers say.
What is the 2025 Thanksgiving feast price prediction?
The AFBF predicts a Thanksgiving feast that feeds 10 to cost $55.18 in 2025. Last year, the organization said the feast would cost $58.08.
In their analysis, they found that frozen turkey prices are down 16% from 2024. This year, a 16-pound turkey averages $21.50. Last year, it was $25.76.
They found the biggest increase in prices in fresh produce, which accounts for five out of 12 items in the list. “A veggie tray is up more than 61 percent and sweet potatoes are up 37 percent,” according to the report.
Finally, the cost of dozen dinner rolls, stuffing and cranberry prices are down. Rolls decreased nearly 15%, stuffing 9% and cranberries nearly 3%.
How does this compare to the Star-Telegram’s price check?
The Star-Telegram team also set out to price check AFBF’s grocery list for a 10-person Thanksgiving meal. We found the cheapest store in Fort Worth was Aldi, with a basket price total of $33.93 — down 38% from AFBF’s prediction.
The prediction difference could be reliant on the stores we shopped at and the cost of living compared to the national average. We followed the AFBF’s exact list down to the exact measurements. To see our full findings, click on the article below.
Let’s take a look at Aldi’s pricing in Fort Worth compared to the AFBF’s predictions.
16-pound turkey
- AFBF’s prediction: $21.50
- Star-Telegram’s findings: $15.42
12 ounces of fresh cranberries
- AFBF’s prediction: $2.28
- Star-Telegram’s findings: 99 cents
Three pounds of sweet potatoes
- AFBF’s prediction: $4.00
- Star-Telegram’s findings: $1.95
One pound of carrots (AFBF noted ½ pound, however, we found it easier to note a pound)
- AFBF’s prediction: $1.36
- Star-Telegram’s findings: 95 cents
One pound of celery (AFBF noted ½ pound, however, we found it easier to note a pound)
- AFBF’s prediction: $1.36
- Star-Telegram’s findings: 99 cents
One pound of bagged green beans
- AFBF’s prediction: $2.03
- Star-Telegram’s findings: $2.99
Two 9-inch frozen pie shells
- AFBF’s prediction: $3.37
- Star-Telegram’s findings: $1.85
14 ounces of cubed boxed stuffing (any flavor)
- AFBF’s prediction: $3.71
- Star-Telegram’s findings: $1.84
One dozen Hawaiian dinner rolls
- AFBF’s prediction: $3.56
- Star-Telegram’s findings: $1.99
30 ounces of canned pumpkin pie mix
- AFBF’s prediction: $4.16
- Star-Telegram’s findings: Aldi did not carry this item when we shopped in the first week of November. The next cheapest store, WinCo, carried this item for $3.38.
One gallon of whole milk
- AFBF’s prediction: $3.73
- Star-Telegram’s findings: $2.47
One pint of heavy whipping cream
- AFBF’s prediction: $1.87
- Star-Telegram’s findings: $2.49
Where are the best places to shop for items with increasing prices?
The AFBF says that fresh produce is increasing in price this year. Based on our price check, here are the best places to buy fresh produce.
- 12 ounces of fresh cranberries: Aldi for 99 cents
- Three pounds of sweet potatoes: Aldi for $1.95.
- One pound of carrots: Walmart for 99 cents
- One pound of celery: Aldi for 95 cents
- One pound of bagged green beans: Aldi for $2.99.
Overall, Aldi is the best place to shop for a Thanksgiving feast that will feed 10 people this year.