Fort Worth has more than 1 million residents. When will it stop growing?
Last year, Fort Worth became one of only 11 American cities with 1 million residents.
To those bearing witness to the manic construction, clogged streets, and other symptoms of the city’s rapid growth, the milestone comes as little surprise. And there’s little sign the expansion will cease any time soon.
Fort Worth soaked up 23,442 new residents between July 2023 and July 2024, the fifth largest influx in the nation. Five of the country’s 15 fastest-growing cities are in the Metroplex, albeit on its eastern half.
The North Central Texas Council of Governments, a regional planning body, suspects Fort Worth proper will absorb another 320,000 residents by 2050.
How long will the boom last?
Population predictions for Fort Worth
Few of the organizations keeping tabs on the region’s growth have forecasted when exactly Fort Worth’s population might plateau.
“There’s a certain density that will kind of slow population growth down,” said Lloyd Potter, Texas’ “state demographer” and a professor at the University of Texas at San Antonio. “That’s not easy to say what that is, because there’s a lot of variables with that.”
Among the most consequential is land use.
New York City houses almost 8.5 million people on 304 square miles of land. Fort Worth is more than 40 square miles larger.
Fort Worth is also less built out — and far less compact. Roughly a quarter of the city’s surface area is blanketed by single-family homes, by far the largest share of any type of residence. Just over a third is vacant.
Building more and building tighter will sustain the city’s capacity to take in new residents, Potter says. It will also, many housing experts argue, help stave off runaway rents and home prices.
Keeping Fort Worth comparatively affordable, Potter added, is vital to maintaining its allure. So too are good jobs, good schools, safe streets, and the less tangible measurements of good city living.
“What’s happening in the urban core — is housing getting to be less affordable? Is there higher crime rates? Are the school districts bad?” Potter explained. “Those things are going to drive people out or kind of make Fort Worth less attractive, if those are negative.”
Housing costs and Fort Worth ISD’s chronic woes have already begun to push Fort Worth residents farther afield into neighboring cities and counties.
“If it gets to be unaffordable, that’s where you’re going to start seeing people moving farther and farther out,” Potter said.
But Fort Worth’s boundaries extend far beyond the gridded streets of downtown or the historic subdivisions within Loop 820. The city’s extraterritorial jurisdiction — the unincorporated territory just beyond city limits — spans almost 365 square miles. Fort Worth could, conceivably, annex it all, more than doubling its size.
Seeding and sustaining new neighborhoods in the city’s newest extensions is another challenge entirely.
“The 1 million mark reflects not just growth, but complexity.” said Christianne Simmons, a city planner and Fort Worth’s chief transformation officer. “As Fort Worth becomes a bigger city, the questions get tougher — about infrastructure, public services and how to make limited dollars go further.
