Rangers’ sterling record defies lowly run differential

It’s the most basic statistic in baseball, run differential. And, in essence, it’s the name of the game. Score more runs than you allow.

In case you’re already confused, run differential is the difference between the number of runs a team scores and the number of runs a team allows.

If you boil it down to a single game, say the Texas Rangers’ 8-5 win over the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday night, the Rangers have a plus-3 run differential and the Brewers have a minus-3.

Added up over the course of a season and the good teams separate themselves from the bad teams and the great teams separate themselves from the good teams.

But overall run differential doesn’t always translate neatly into wins and losses.

And that’s, in part, at the crux of the dismissal by some of the 2016 Rangers, who went into their Thursday day off with the best record in the American League at 94-65.

The Rangers sit in first place, one win from clinching home-field advantage throughout the postseason with, however, a lowly run differential of plus-11.

That ranks 14th in the majors, below four teams that won’t even be in the postseason.

Run differential through Wednesday

But perhaps the naysayers have a point. Maybe the Rangers’ “luck” will run out in the playoffs. Maybe we’ve all been smitten by the team’s clubhouse camaraderie and its ability to take a punch but remain standing has us all viewing them through Lone Star lenses. A look at the previous 11 World Series winners shows only one club has ranked lower during the regular season, the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, who were 15th with a plus-19. The Cardinals finished 82-80 that season. In fact, in the previous 11 seasons they’re the only team to win a title with a run differential less than 50. But only twice in the past 11 seasons has the regular season run differential leader won the World Series, the 2007 Red Sox (plus-210) and 2013 Red Sox (plus-197).

Past 10 World Series winners

“There was a fight with a famous boxer,” Rangers center fielder Ian Desmond said. “He got beat up the whole fight. He was just wearing punches, wearing punches and wearing punches. If you looked at the stats, he was the loser. But he ended up knocking the other guy out and he won.”

That fighter, Muhammad Ali, knocked out George Foreman at the end of the eighth round of the 1974 world heavyweight championship bout — known as the Rumble in the Jungle — after, the legend has it, taking a beating the first seven rounds. (History shows the three judges each had Ali narrowly winning the match through the first seven rounds, but I digress.)

“All it’s about at the end of the day, is who wins and who loses,” Desmond said, echoing the sentiment of his teammates. “I think it’s a good sign when you can take a lot of hits and end up the last one standing.”

That’s been the Rangers’ mantra for most of the season, despite the fact that they’ve been in first place since May 29. The Red Sox? They’ve only kept a hold on first place since Sept. 6. The Indians have led the AL Central since June 4.

Since 2005, two division winners have had a worse run differential than the Rangers: the 2005 Padres (minus-42) and the 2007 Diamondbacks (minus-20).

Neither fared well in the postseason, although the Diamondbacks swept the Cubs in the NLDS before getting swept in the NLCS by the Rockies.

Division winners with lowest run differential since 2003

(Note: The 2005 Padres finished 82-80 and the entire NL West division had negative run differentials; the 2007 Diamondbacks finished 90-72.)

Fun with Fangraphs

As of Thursday morning, Fangraphs, a well-respected website that provides statistical analysis and projections, says the Rangers have an 8.6 percent chance of winning the World Series, the fifth lowest of the six division winners. Only the Indians are lower at 7.9 percent.

On April 3, after two games had been played across the league, Fangraphs predicted only two teams in the AL (Orioles and Twins) had a lower chance of reaching the World Series than the Rangers at 2.9 percent. The Rangers’ chances of winning the World Series, according to Fangraphs, was 0.9 percent at the start of the season. Don’t feel too chagrined, Rangers fans. Six teams in the NL were given 0.0 percent chance of winning the World Series. In case you’re wondering, none of the six are sniffing the playoffs.

Fangraphs’ monthly Rangers projections

Manager Jeff Banister was asked how his team had won 90 games last week.

His first response came from the heart. “Because they’re a damn good team, that’s why,” he said.

After pausing to ponder the question, he gave a thoughtful answer.

“I think all the parts have worked well together,” he said. “You can distinctively look at different parts of the season when guys have been hot, [and when they weren’t] somebody else steps up and is hot. Collectively, they’ve been hot. Same thing on the pitching side of it, whether it was the rotation or the bullpen. I just think it’s been the complement of everything together, and they’re talented. And they have a love for winning that I believe is unmatched.”

No word yet if Fangraphs has added a Love/Winning formula to their algorithms.

This story was originally published September 29, 2016 at 11:27 AM with the headline "Rangers’ sterling record defies lowly run differential."