TCU remains in mix, but out of wiggle room, in race for Big 12 title

In a football season that began with lofty goals, TCU finds itself unranked in the polls and back in pursuit mode as it seeks to make up ground on the front-runners in the Big 12 championship race.

But the Horned Frogs (3-2, 1-1 Big 12) refuse to believe their 52-46 loss to Oklahoma is the death knell for their league title hopes even though the Sooners (2-2, 1-0) would have to lose two of their remaining conference games to allow TCU to pass them in the final standings.

That’s a big ask after No. 20 Oklahoma, winner of nine Big 12 titles in the past 16 seasons, resurfaced in Sunday’s Associated Press poll with control of its destiny in the conference race.

TCU also finds itself looking up at No. 13 Baylor (5-0, 2-0) and No. 22 West Virginia (4-0, 1-0), among others, in the conference standings as the Frogs prepare for Saturday’s game at Kansas (1-3, 0-1), which last tasted victory against a Big 12 opponent during the 2014 season.

But the Frogs have seen what everyone else has witnessed while studying videotapes this season: the lack of a dominant team in this league, including themselves or Oklahoma. Therefore, hope floats.

“The Big 12 race is still wide open. If we run the table, I think the chances are still out there to win the Big 12 title,” defensive end Josh Carraway said after Saturday’s loss included the most points allowed in regulation by a TCU defense at Amon G. Carter Stadium since the 1996 season (52 to Kansas).

That is not a statistical milestone that suggests title contention. But this is the Big 12, where seven of 10 league teams already have at least two losses on their season records. This is the Big 12, home to four of the nation’s nine most porous scoring defenses among Power 5 programs: Texas (38.3 avg.), Texas Tech (37.3), Oklahoma (35.3) and Kansas (35.3).

Until some team separates itself from the pack defensively and stops taking part in weekly shootouts (unlikely), there is no reason for any Big 12 offensive player to believe his team is ever out of a game.

Latest example: TCU had a chance to win Saturday’s game with a final-drive touchdown despite facing a 25-point deficit heading into the fourth quarter.

OU built that cushion with a 42-3 surge after TCU sprinted to a 21-7 lead in the first 13 minutes. The potential for such dramatic momentum shifts means no door is ever really locked on a Big 12 comeback. Or an implosion.

“We know that we had this game and we let it slip away,” TCU running back Kyle Hicks said, summing up the OU loss. “We know the Big 12 is still open. We can go out there and win every game from here on out and still reach our goal.”

Left unsaid is the implied belief that Oklahoma, like every other Big 12 team, is capable of losing at least two games between now and Dec. 3. Based on five weeks of evidence, Hicks has a valid point. Equally valid: It seems unlikely that TCU, or anyone else in this league, will win seven consecutive games against Big 12 opponents.

To run the table, TCU must finish 7-0 . It’s mathematically possible. But after Saturday’s game against Kansas (11 a.m., ESPNU), TCU is out of low-hanging fruit on its schedule. The final six games all loom as coin-flip propositions, and coach Gary Patterson sees lots of unsettled issues on both sides of the ball.

“I don’t know if we have the people to be able to challenge for a conference championship,” Patterson said. “But the bottom line is, we’re dang sure going to try.”

That’s an honest assessment that could apply to every league team with a record of .500 or better at this point, including TCU. Patterson also shared an honest assessment of some borderline calls that surfaced Saturday that could trigger repercussions from the league office.

Patterson he “wasn’t happy with the officiating,” citing an intentional grounding call on TCU quarterback Kenny Hill on the Frogs’ final drive and what he considered a missed holding infraction by Oklahoma running back Joe Mixon on a touchdown play.

On the Mixon play, Patterson said: “They had one touchdown where they just tackled my guy … So I don’t really care right now if the commissioner doesn’t like if I complain about the officials.”

It is against Big 12 policy to publicly criticize officials, and Commissioner Bob Bowlsby would determine if Patterson’s comments draw a public reprimand. Regardless of what action surfaces, if any, the reality shows TCU remains in this crazy Big 12 title race as much as any other team.

With a second league loss, that changes. But for now, it’s reasonable to believe an 8-1 record in conference play would earn at least a share of the Big 12 championship if TCU could post it.

Important reminder: No league team has posted an undefeated mark against Big 12 peers since the league implemented its current nine-game, round-robin football schedule for the 2011 season. Every champion or co-champion has finished 8-1 the past five years.

To expect one of this year’s teams to be the first to run the table in a nine-game league schedule seems far-fetched. That leaves TCU in the title mix but out of wiggle room when it comes to additional setbacks.

This story was originally published October 2, 2016 at 2:51 PM with the headline "TCU remains in mix, but out of wiggle room, in race for Big 12 title."